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The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia

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Author Info

  • Daniel Mejía

    () (Universidad de los Andes)

  • Pascual Restrepo

    () (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

This paper provides a thorough economic evaluation of the anti-drug policies implemented in Colombia between 2000 and 2006 under the so-called Plan Colombia. The paper develops a game theory model of the war against illegal drugs in producer countries. We explicitly model illegal drug markets, which allows us to account for the feedback effects between policies and market outcomes that are potentially important when evaluating large scale policy interventions such as Plan Colombia. We use available data for the war on cocaine production and trafficking as well as outcomes from the cocaine markets to calibrate the parameters of the model. Using the results from the calibration we estimate important measures of the costs, effectiveness, and efficiency of the war on drugs in Colombia. Finally we carry out simulations in order to assess the impact of increases in the U.S. budget allocated to Plan Colombia, and find that a three-fold increase in the U.S. budget allocated to the war on drugs in Colombia would decrease the amount of cocaine that successfully reaches consumer countries by about 17%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 53.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:53

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Web page: http://www.hicn.org

Related research

Keywords: Hard drugs; conflict; war on drugs; Plan Colombia;

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Cited by:
  1. Mejia, Daniel & Uribe, Maria Jose & Ibanez, Ana Maria, 2011. "An Evaluation of the Macarena Integral Consolidation Plan (PCIM)," Documentos CEDE Series 107426, Universidad de Los Andes, Economics Department.
  2. Gerson Javier Pérez V., 2012. "Goals Met or Just Empty Promises? First Version of the Democratic Security Policy in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 700, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Gerson Javier Pérez V., 2012. "Plan Colombia’s Onset: Effects on Homicides and Violent Deaths," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010348, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Juan David Prada-Sarmiento, 2010. "Uncertainty in conflicts," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007713, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  5. Daniel Mejia & Pascual Restrepo, 2011. "The War on Illegal Drugs in Producer and Consumer Countries: A simple analytical framework," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007960, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  6. Leonardo Raffo López, 2010. "Narcotráfico y conflicto: ¿por qué bajó el precio de la cocaína?," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 12(23), pages 229-258, July-Dece.
  7. Mariana Blanco & Juan F. Vargas, 2010. "Empowering IDP with SMS: a randomized controlled trial in Bogotá," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 007306, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  8. Adriana Camacho & Alejandro Gaviria & Catherine Rodríguez, 2010. "El consumo de droga en Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 007607, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

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