Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030
AbstractA socio-technical approach is used to show that the future of urban mobility will depend on the competition between coalitions of innovative actors who support alternative transport systems. The current positioning of these coalitions is mapped with reference to innovation and power. The supporting coalition of the ‘individual car’ system benefits from a dominant position on current alternatives, but faces external pressures for change. Three transition pathways to 2030 are considered - 1) ‘AUTO-city’, i.e. the reconfiguration of the ‘individual car’ supporting coalition through the stable integration of producers of batteries; 2) ‘ECO-city’, i.e. the empowering of local coalitions which integrate all non-car modes, and their diffusion from pioneering to laggard cities; 3) ‘ELECTRI-city’, i.e. the empowering of a new coalition centered on electric operators which establish a new ‘electric vehicles + smart grids’ system. The deployment of one or another transition pathway also depends on the ability of supporting coalitions to influence political institutions. Without a political action for the weakening of the dominant position of the ‘individual car’ system, the ‘AUTO-city’ transition pathway will prevail. To support the ‘ECO-city’ and the ‘ELECTRI-city’ transition pathways, a multilevel transport policy or a national/federal industrial policy is needed, respectively.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia in its series Working Paper CRENoS with number 201306.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
urban mobility; socio-technical analysis; socio-technical transition; innovative actor; supporting coalition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
- R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2013-03-30 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-30 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-TRE-2013-03-30 (Transport Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-03-30 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Smith, Adrian & Raven, Rob, 2012. "What is protective space? Reconsidering niches in transitions to sustainability," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1036.
- Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
- Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Hirsh, Richard F., 2009. "Beyond batteries: An examination of the benefits and barriers to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and a vehicle-to-grid (V2G) transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1095-1103, March.
- Mullan, Jonathan & Harries, David & Bräunl, Thomas & Whitely, Stephen, 2012. "The technical, economic and commercial viability of the vehicle-to-grid concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 394-406.
- Hodson, Mike & Marvin, Simon, 2010. "Can cities shape socio-technical transitions and how would we know if they were?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 477-485, May.
- Geels, Frank W., 2010. "Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 495-510, May.
- Smith, Adrian & Voß, Jan-Peter & Grin, John, 2010. "Innovation studies and sustainability transitions: The allure of the multi-level perspective and its challenges," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 435-448, May.
- Römer, Benedikt & Reichhart, Philipp & Kranz, Johann & Picot, Arnold, 2012. "The role of smart metering and decentralized electricity storage for smart grids: The importance of positive externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 486-495.
- Safarzynska, Karolina & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2010. "Evolving power and environmental policy: Explaining institutional change with group selection," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 743-752, February.
- Giordano, Vincenzo & Fulli, Gianluca, 2012. "A business case for Smart Grid technologies: A systemic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 252-259.
- Andersen, Poul H. & Mathews, John A. & Rask, Morten, 2009. "Integrating private transport into renewable energy policy: The strategy of creating intelligent recharging grids for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2481-2486, July.
- Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
- Dijk, Marc & Orsato, Renato J. & Kemp, René, 2013. "The emergence of an electric mobility trajectory," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 135-145.
- Bristow, Abigail L. & Tight, Miles & Pridmore, Alison & May, Anthony D., 2008. "Developing pathways to low carbon land-based passenger transport in Great Britain by 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3427-3435, September.
- Gerardo Marletto, 2010.
"Structure, Agency And Change In The Car Regime. A Review Of The Literature,"
0610, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2010.
- Marletto, Gerardo, 2011. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime. A review of the literature," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 47, pages 71-88.
- Marletto, Gerardo, 2010. "Structure, agency and change in the car regime: A review of the literature," MPRA Paper 32134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Moloney, Susie & Horne, Ralph E. & Fien, John, 2010. "Transitioning to low carbon communities--from behaviour change to systemic change: Lessons from Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7614-7623, December.
- Smith, Adrian & Stirling, Andy & Berkhout, Frans, 2005. "The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1491-1510, December.
- Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.
- Doucette, Reed T. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2011. "Modeling the CO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 803-811, February.
- Kley, Fabian & Lerch, Christian & Dallinger, David, 2011. "New business models for electric cars--A holistic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3392-3403, June.
- Budde Christensen, Thomas & Wells, Peter & Cipcigan, Liana, 2012. "Can innovative business models overcome resistance to electric vehicles? Better Place and battery electric cars in Denmark," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 498-505.
- Sperling, Daniel & Gordon, Deborah, 2009. "Two Billion Cars: Driving Toward Sustainability," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195376647.
- Suurs, Roald A.A. & Hekkert, Marko P. & Kieboom, Sander & Smits, Ruud E.H.M., 2010. "Understanding the formative stage of technological innovation system development: The case of natural gas as an automotive fuel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 419-431, January.
- Vanessa OLTRA (E3i-IFReDE-GRES) & Maïder SAINT-JEAN (E3i-IFReDE-GRES), 2006. "Variety of technological trajectories in low emission vehicles (LEVs): a patent data analysis," Cahiers du GRES 2006-20, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
- Foxon, Timothy J., 2011. "A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2258-2267.
- Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
- Erlinghagen, Sabine & Markard, Jochen, 2012. "Smart grids and the transformation of the electricity sector: ICT firms as potential catalysts for sectoral change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 895-906.
- Rajan, Sudhir Chella, 2006. "Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both?: An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 664-679, April.
- Pucher, John & Buehler, Ralph & Seinen, Mark, 2011. "Bicycling renaissance in North America? An update and re-appraisal of cycling trends and policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 451-475, July.
- Geoffrey Rose, 2012. "E-bikes and urban transportation: emerging issues and unresolved questions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 81-96, January.
- Anable, Jillian & Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Eyre, Nick, 2012. "Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 125-138.
- Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
- McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
- Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
- Pasaoglu, Guzay & Honselaar, Michel & Thiel, Christian, 2012. "Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 404-421.
- San Román, Tomás Gómez & Momber, Ilan & Abbad, Michel Rivier & Sánchez Miralles, Álvaro, 2011. "Regulatory framework and business models for charging plug-in electric vehicles: Infrastructure, agents, and commercial relationships," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6360-6375, October.
- van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Gowdy, John M., 2009. "A group selection perspective on economic behavior, institutions and organizations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 1-20, October.
- Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antonello Pau).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.