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A transitions model for sustainable mobility

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Author Info

  • Köhler, Jonathan
  • Whitmarsh, Lorraine
  • Nykvist, Björn
  • Schilperoord, Michel
  • Bergman, Noam
  • Haxeltine, Alex
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    Abstract

    This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10-30Â years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

    Volume (Year): 68 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 12 (October)
    Pages: 2985-2995

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:12:p:2985-2995

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

    Related research

    Keywords: Sustainable mobility Transition theory Agent-based model;

    References

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    1. Jeroen Struben & John D Sterman, 2008. "Transition challenges for alternative fuel vehicle and transportation systems," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 1070-1097, November.
    2. Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan K�hler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 7.
    3. Malte Schwoon, 2006. "Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 435-472, October.
    4. Malte Schwoon, 2005. "Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-59, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006.
    5. Mau, Paulus & Eyzaguirre, Jimena & Jaccard, Mark & Collins-Dodd, Colleen & Tiedemann, Kenneth, 2008. "The 'neighbor effect': Simulating dynamics in consumer preferences for new vehicle technologies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 504-516, December.
    6. Dougherty, William & Kartha, Sivan & Rajan, Chella & Lazarus, Michael & Bailie, Alison & Runkle, Benjamin & Fencl, Amanda, 2009. "Greenhouse gas reduction benefits and costs of a large-scale transition to hydrogen in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 56-67, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Joop Koppenjan & Niki Frantzeskaki & Derk Loorbach & Michael B. Charles & Neal Neal, 2012. "Introductory editorial," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(1/2), pages 1-18.
    2. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    3. Tsita, Katerina G. & Pilavachi, Petros A., 2013. "Evaluation of next generation biomass derived fuels for the transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 443-455.
    4. Timothy J. Foxon & Jonathan K�hler & Jonathan Michie & Christine Oughton, 2013. "Towards a new complexity economics for sustainability," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 187-208.
    5. Angelo Antoci & Simone Borghesi & Gerardo Marletto, 2012. "To drive or not to drive? A simple evolutionary model," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(2), pages 31-47.
    6. Firnkorn, Jörg & Müller, Martin, 2011. "What will be the environmental effects of new free-floating car-sharing systems? The case of car2go in Ulm," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(8), pages 1519-1528, June.
    7. Zeppini Rossi, P., 2013. "A Discrete Choice Model of Transitions to Sustainable Technologies," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    8. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    9. Gerardo Marletto, 2010. "Structure, Agency And Change In The Car Regime. A Review Of The Literature," Working Papers 0610, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2010.
    10. Niki Frantzeskaki & Derk Loorbach & James Meadowcroft, 2012. "Governing societal transitions to sustainability," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(1/2), pages 19-36.
    11. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    12. Gerardo Marletto, 2012. "Which Conceptual Foundations For Environmental Policies? An Institutional And Evolutionary Framework Of Economic Change," Working Papers 0112, CREI Università degli Studi Roma Tre, revised 2012.
    13. Marletto, Gerardo, 2012. "Which conceptual foundations for environmental policies? An institutional and evolutionary framework of economic change," MPRA Paper 36441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Schwanen, Tim & Banister, David & Anable, Jillian, 2011. "Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 993-1006.

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