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Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States

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Author Info
Michel Juillard
Ondrej Kamenik
Michael Kumhof
Douglas Laxton

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Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model for the United States that features rational inflation inertia and persistence. The model is estimated with Bayesian-estimation techniques and time-varying inflation objectives to account for movements between regimes. After showing that the model produces forecasts that are quite competitive with other methods we use the forecasts of the model to generate more robust Hodrick-Prescott filter end-of-sample estimates of the output gap.

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Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2006/11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/11

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Related research
Keywords: Bayesian estimation; inflation inertia; monetary policy; output gap.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charles Freedman & Marianne Johnson & Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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