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Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States

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  • Michel Juillard
  • Ondrej Kamenik
  • Michael Kumhof
  • Douglas Laxton

Abstract

This paper develops a DSGE model for the United States that features rational inflation inertia and persistence. The model is estimated with Bayesian-estimation techniques and time-varying inflation objectives to account for movements between regimes. After showing that the model produces forecasts that are quite competitive with other methods we use the forecasts of the model to generate more robust Hodrick-Prescott filter end-of-sample estimates of the output gap.

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File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/cnbwp_2006_11.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2006/11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/11

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Keywords: Bayesian estimation; inflation inertia; monetary policy; output gap.;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Kai Leitemo & Junior Maih, 2008. "Estimating the natural rates in a simple New Keynesian framework," Working Paper 2007/10, Norges Bank.
  2. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 335, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Andrea Tambalotti & Andrea Ferrero & Vasco Curdia, 2010. "Evaluating Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated DSGE Model," 2010 Meeting Papers 402, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Jaromir Benes & Douglas Laxton & Troy Matheson, 2010. "Structural Models in Real Time," IMF Working Papers 10/56, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Auray, Stéphane & de Blas, Beatriz, 2013. "Investment, matching and persistence in a modified cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 591-610.
  7. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Adding Latin America to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 09/85, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.

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