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Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation - The Open Economy Case

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  • Guillermo Calvo
  • Oya Celasun
  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

This paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in current models of sticky prices, transitions to a lower steady state inflation rate take time even if they are fully credible, and they are associated with significant output losses. There is a welfare trade-off between these output losses and the gains from smaller inflationary distortions. For reasonable parameter values inflation stabilization improves welfare. The optimal steady state is reached at the Friedman rule. Technical appendices are available at www.nber.org/data-appendix/w9557/ inert-techapp.pdf

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9557.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Publication status: published as Calvo, Guillermo, O. Celasun and M. Kumhof. “Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation – The Open Economy Case." Journal of International Economics (2007).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9557

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  1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Diego Winkelried & Marco Vega, 2004. "How Does Global Disinflation Drag Inflation in Small Open Economies?," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 76, Econometric Society.
  2. Buiter, Willem H, 2006. "How Robust is the New Conventional Wisdom? The Surprising Fragility of the Theoretical Foundations of Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August.
  4. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2005. "A Rational Expectations Model of Optimal Inflation Inertia," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 429, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2010. "Contracting models of the Phillips curve empirical estimates for middle-income countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 555-570, June.
  6. Michael Kumhof, 2004. "Inflation Inertia- THe Role of Multiple, Interacting Pricing Rigidities," Working Papers 182004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  7. Luis F. Céspedes C. & Claudio Soto G., 2006. "Inflation Targeting And Monetary Policy Credibility In Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 53-70, December.
  8. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Minford, Patrick, 2007. "Optimising Indexation Arrangements under Calvo Contracts and their Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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