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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Ermolaev
  • Michel Juillard
  • Ioan Carabenciov
  • Charles Freedman
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
  • Dmitry Korshunov

Abstract

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 2008/278, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/278
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    References listed on IDEAS

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