Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Overconfidence, Omens And Emotions: Results From A Field Experiment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maria De Paola

    ()

  • Francesca Gioia

    ()

  • Vincenzo Scoppa

    ()
    (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Statistiche e Finanziarie, Università della Calabria)

Abstract

We analyze how overconfidence is affected by superstitious beliefs and emotions induced by positive and negative stimuli in a field experiment involving about 700 Italian students who were randomly assigned to numbered seats in their written examination sessions. According to widespread superstitions, some numbers are considered lucky, while others are considered unlucky. At the end of the examination, we asked students the grade they expected to get. We find that students tend to be systematically overconfident and that their overconfidence is positively affected by being assigned to a lucky number. Interestingly, males and females react differently: on the one hand, females tend to expect lower grades when assigned to unlucky numbers, while they are not affected by being assigned to lucky numbers. On the other hand, males are not affected by being assigned to unlucky numbers but expect higher grades when assigned to lucky numbers.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecostat.unical.it/RePEc/WorkingPapers/WP03_2013.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013-02
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza (Ex Dipartimento di Economia e Statistica) in its series Working Papers with number 201303.

as in new window
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:clb:wpaper:201303

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza, Ponte Pietro Bucci, Cubo 0/C, I-87036 Arcavacata di Rende, CS, Italy
Phone: +39 0984 492413
Fax: +39 0984 492421
Web page: http://www.unical.it/portale/strutture/dipartimenti_240/disesf/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Expectations; Grade; Overconfidence; Emotions; Superstition;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ka-Fu Wong & Linda Yung, 2005. "Do Dragons Have Better Fate?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 689-697, July.
  2. Stefano DellaVigna & Ulrike Malmendier, 2006. "Paying Not to Go to the Gym," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 694-719, June.
  3. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Tate, Geoffrey, 2003. "Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction," Research Papers, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business 1798, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  4. Brozynski, Torsten & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2004. "The Impact of Experience on Risk Taking, Overconfidence, and Herding of Fund Managers: Complementary Survey Evidence," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP), Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät dp-292, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  5. Torgler, Benno, 2007. "Determinants of superstition," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 713-733, October.
  6. Thomas Kramer & Lauren Block, 2008. "Conscious and Nonconscious Components of Superstitious Beliefs in Judgment and Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(6), pages 783-793, October.
  7. Fehr-Duda, Helga & Epper, Thomas & Bruhin, Adrian & Schubert, Renate, 2011. "Risk and rationality: The effects of mood and decision rules on probability weighting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 14-24, April.
  8. Drichoutis, Andreas & Nayga, Rodolfo, 2010. "Eliciting risk and time preferences under induced mood states," MPRA Paper 33013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Aug 2011.
  9. Stefano DellaVigna, 2007. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 13420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
  11. C. Monica Capra & Shireen Meer & Kelli Lanier, 2006. "The Effects of Induced Mood on Bidding in Random N-th Price Auctions," Emory Economics, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta) 0607, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  12. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, 08.
  13. Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund, 2007. "Do Women Shy Away from Competition? Do Men Compete Too Much?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 122(3), pages 1067-1101, 08.
  14. Kirchsteiger, Georg & Rigotti, Luca & Rustichini, Aldo, 2006. "Your morals might be your moods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 155-172, February.
  15. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
  16. John Ifcher & Homa Zarghamee, 2011. "Happiness and Time Preference: The Effect of Positive Affect in a Random-Assignment Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3109-29, December.
  17. Rachel Croson & Uri Gneezy, 2009. "Gender Differences in Preferences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 448-74, June.
  18. Woo, Chi-Keung & Kwok, Raymond H. F., 1994. "Vanity, superstition and auction price," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 389-395, April.
  19. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  20. Steven C. Bourassa & Vincent S. Peng, 1999. "Hedonic Prices and House Numbers: The Influence of Feng Shui," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 2(1), pages 79-93.
  21. Baumann, Andrea O. & Deber, Raisa B. & Thompson, Gail G., 1991. "Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The 'micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty' phenomenon," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 167-174, January.
  22. Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Luk, Stephen & Lai, Aaron, 2008. "Willingness to pay and nuanced cultural cues: Evidence from Hong Kong's license-plate auction market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 35-53, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:clb:wpaper:201303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Giovanni Dodero).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.