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Floating, Official Dollarization, and Macroeconomic Volatility:An Analysis for the Chilean Economy

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  • Roberto Duncan

Abstract

This paper contrasts the volatility of the main macroeconomic variables of a small open economy in two environments: an official dollarization (OD) scheme and a flexible exchange regime (FER). A simple DSGE model calibrated for the Chilean economy is used as a laboratory to study the implications of these regimes on the standard deviations of key variables. Welfare implications are also analyzed for a central bank that it is concerned with output and inflation volatility. Our findings show that OD results in: higher real volatility due to the absence of ountercyclical monetary policy; lower inflation volatility because of a less volatile foreign interest rate; and, from a welfare perspective, OD is dominated by a FER when the central bank weighs considerably the deviations of inflation and output from the steady state. Also, OD implies higher fiscal deficit volatility as a consequence of higher tax revenue volatility, and a higher reaction to terms-of-trade shocks.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 249.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:249

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  1. Raphael Bergoeing & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Testing Real Business Cycles Models in an Emerging Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 159, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Sebastian Edwards & I. Igal Magendzo, 2001. "Dollarization, Inflation and Growth," NBER Working Papers 8671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 8274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J & Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A decade lost and found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Staff Report 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Roberto Duncan, 2005. "How Well Does a Monetary Dynamics Equilibrium Model Account for Chilean Data?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel ( (ed.), General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 6, pages 189-220 Central Bank of Chile.
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  12. Alessandro Rebucci, 2004. "Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 644, Econometric Society.
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  15. Pereyra, Carlos & Quispe, Zenón, 2002. "¿Es conveniente una dolarización total en una economía parcialmente dolarizada?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 8, pages 25-47.
  16. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "Stabilization Policy and the Costs of Dollarization," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 482-509, May.
  17. Bastourre, Diego & Carrera, Jorge & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Dollarization and real volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0311, CEPREMAP.
  18. Aaron Drew & Viv Hall & John McDermott & Robert St. Clair, 2001. "Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  19. Zeljko Bogetic, 2005. "Official Dollarization: Current Experiences and Issues, Cato Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2 (Fall 2000), 179-213," International Finance 0510006, EconWPA.
  20. Cooley, Thomas F & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2001. "The Cost of Losing Monetary Independence: The Case of Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 370-97, May.
  21. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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