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The Short-and Long-Run Determinants of Unskilled Immigration into US States

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Abstract

This paper uses a gravity model of migration to analyze how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short- and long-term components and by focusing on newly arrived unskilled immigrants between 2000-2008. Our sample is unique in that 95 percent of our observed immigrant flows equal zero. The trade literature has advocated using the Eaton and Tamura (1994) threshold Tobit model in similar settings, and we are the first to apply the methodology to analyze the determinants of immigration. We find that recent U.S. immigrants positively respond to differences in long-term (or trend) GDP between origin countries and U.S. states. When appropriately accounting for the zero values, we also find that differences in GDP fluctuations significantly affect the flow of unskilled immigrants. In addition, we find that short-run GDP fluctuations pull unskilled immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP levels push unskilled immigrants out of their countries of origin.

Suggested Citation

  • Simpson, Nicole & Sparber, Chad, 2010. "The Short-and Long-Run Determinants of Unskilled Immigration into US States," Working Papers 2010-06, Department of Economics, Colgate University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2010-06
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    10. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    2. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," Working Papers 2012-12, FEDEA.
    3. Alícia Adserà & Mariola Pytliková, 2015. "The Role of Language in Shaping International Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 49-81, August.
    4. Nicole B. Simpson, 2013. "Happiness and migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 21, pages 393-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Dirk Engel & Oliver Heneric, 2013. "Localization of knowledge and entrepreneurs’ mobility: the case of Germany’s biotechnology industry," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 33(2), pages 173-192, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; macroeconomics; GDP; gravity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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