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Conflict, Settlement, and the Shadow of the Future

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  • Michael McBride
  • Stergios Skaperdas

Abstract

In many instances of potential violent or non-violent conflict the future strategic positions of adversaries are very different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. In such environments we show that, as the future becomes more important, open conflict becomes more likely than settlement. We demonstrate the theoretical robustness of this finding, discuss its applicability in war, litigation, and other settings, and test it in a laboratory experiment. We find that subjects are more likely to engage in risky conflict as the future becomes more important.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-12/cesifo1_wp2897.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2897.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2897

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Keywords: conflict; litigation; property rights; folk theorem;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Proprietary Public Finance: On Its Emergence and Evolution Out of Anarchy," Working Papers 101110, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  2. Michael McBride & Gary Milante & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Peace and War With Endogenous State Capacity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(3), pages 446-468, June.
  3. Ke, Changxia & Konrad, Kai A. & Morath, Florian, 2012. "Alliances in the shadow of conflict," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2012-104, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  4. Konrad, Kai A. & Morath, Florian, 2013. "Evolutionary determinants of war," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2013-302, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  5. Michelle R. Garfinkel, 2010. "Political Institutions and War Initiation: The Democratic Peace Hypothesis Revisited," Working Papers 101107, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.

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