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European versus US Unemployment: Different Responses to Increased Demand for skill?

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Author Info
Richard Jackman
Richard Layard
Marco Manacorda
Barbara Petrongolo

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Abstract

According to Paul Krugman, "the European unemployment problem and the US inequality problem are two sides of the same coin". In other words, both continents have had the same shift in demand towards skill; in the US relative wages have adjusted and in Europe not. The implication of this hypothesis is that in Europe the unemployment rate for the unskilled will have risen but the unemployment rate for the skilled will have fallen. In fact it has risen. To investigate the hypothesis more systematically we develop an internally consistent model which allocates the change in a country's unemployment between that resulting from (a) shifts in relative demand for skill minus shifts in relative supply, (b) shifts in the relative intercepts of skilled and unskilled wage functions, (c) shifts in aggregate wage pressure. We show that the rise in British unemployment relative to the US since the 1970s is almost certainly due to shifts in aggregate wage pressure. Similarly for 5 other European countries the combination of (a) and (b) accounts for none of the increase in unemployment since the 1970s.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0349.

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Date of creation: Jun 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0349

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  1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1990. "The Wage Curve," NBER Working Papers 3181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Paul Krugman, 1994. "Past and prospective causes of high unemployment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Jan, pages 49-98.
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  1. Nickell, S.J. & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "The Netherlands and the United Kingdom : a European unemployment miracle?," Discussion Paper 119, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Carsten Ochsen, 2004. "Zukunft der Arbeit und Arbeit der Zukunft in Deutschland," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 45, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Alena Bicakova, 2006. "Market vs. Institutions: The Trade-off Between Unemployment and Wage Inequality Revisited," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/31, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Franz, Wolfgang, 1997. "Flexibilität der qualifikatorischen Lohnstruktur und Lastverteilung der Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine ökonometrische Analyse für Westdeutschland," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-32, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Roed,K. & Strom,S., 1999. "Progressive taxes and the labour market : is the trade-off between equality and efficiency inevitable?," Memorandum 19/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher Gerry & Tomasz Mickiewicz, 2006. "Inequality, Fiscal Capacity and the Political Regime: Lessons from the Post-Communist Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp831, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  8. James Vickery, 1999. "Unemployment and Skills in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-12, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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