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The penalty-kick game under incomplete information

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  • Germán Coloma

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the penalty-kick game between a soccer goalkeeper and a kicker, in which there is uncertainty about the kicker’s type (and there are two possible types of kicker). To find a solution for this game we use the concept of Bayesian equilibrium, and we find that, typically, one of the kicker’s types will play a mixed strategy while the other type will choose a pure strategy (or, sometimes, a “restricted mixed strategy”). The model has a simpler version in which the players can only choose between two strategies (right and left), and a more complex version in which they can also choose a third strategy (the center of the goal). Comparing the incomplete-information Bayesian equilibria with the corresponding complete-information Nash equilibria, we find that in all cases the expected scoring probability increases (so that, on average, the goalkeeper is worse off under incomplete information). The three-strategy model is also useful to explain why it could be optimal for a goal keeper never to choose the center of the goal (although at the same time there were some kickers who always chose to shoot to the center).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad del CEMA in its series CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. with number 487.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:487

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Keywords: soccer penalty kicks; mixed strategies; Bayesian equilibrium; incomplete information;

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  1. Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, 2003. "Professionals Play Minimax," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 395-415.
  2. Florian Baumann & Tim Friehe & Michael Wedow, 2011. "General Ability and Specialization: Evidence From Penalty Kicks in Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 81-105, February.
  3. Bar-Eli, Michael & Azar, Ofer H. & Ritov, Ilana & Keidar-Levin, Yael & Schein, Galit, 2007. "Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 606-621, October.
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