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The Japanese Banking Crisis and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Implications of Deposit Guarantees and Weak Financial Regulation

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  • Dekle, Robert
  • Kletzer, Kenneth

Abstract

An endogenous growth model with financial intermediation is used to show how government policies towards the financial sector can lead to banking crises and persistent growth slumps. The model shows how government deposit guarantees and regulatory forbearance can lead to permanent declines in the growth rate of the economy. The effects of inadequate prudential supervision on asset price dynamics under perfect foresight are also derived in the model. The policies that are used in the analysis are based on essential features of Japanese financial regulation. The implications of the model are compared to the experience of the Japanese economy and financial system during the 1990s. We find that the dynamics predicted by our model are generally consistent with the recent behavior of economic aggregates, asset prices and the banking system for Japan. A policy implication of the model is that the impact on future economic growth depends upon the length of time the government fails to enforce loan-loss reserving by banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt0t6321ds.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:scciec:qt0t6321ds

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References

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  1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  2. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  3. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi, 1999. "The Morning After--Explaining the Slowdown in Japanese Growth in the 1990s'," IMF Working Papers 99/13, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473.
  7. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
  8. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries," NBER Working Papers 9737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kenneth Kletzer & Robert Dekle, 2001. "Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crises: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia," IMF Working Papers 01/63, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Barseghyan, Levon, 2010. "Non-performing loans, prospective bailouts, and Japan's slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 873-890, October.
  11. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937.
  12. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1999. "International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  13. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kwon, Eunkyung, 1998. "Monetary Policy, Land Prices, and Collateral Effects on Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 175-203, September.
  15. Ogawa, K. & Kitasaka, S.-I., 2000. "Bank Lending in Japan: its Determinants and Macroeconomic Implications," ISER Discussion Paper 0505, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  16. repec:fth:osakae:505 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Keltzer, K. & Spiegel, M., 1999. "Sterilization Costs and Exchange Rate Targeting," Papers pb99-03, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  2. Kletzer, Kenneth, 2004. "Liberalizing Capital Flows in India: Financial Repression, Macroeconomic Policy and Gradual Reforms," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt3kj2w649, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  3. Narayana Kocherlakota & Ilhyock Shim, 2005. "Forbearance and Prompt Corrective Action," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000532, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Transmission of Liquidity Shock to Bank Credit: Evidence from the Deposit Insurance Reform in Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
  5. Suparna Chakraborty, 2005. "Real Estate Prices, Borrowing Constraints and Business Cycles -A Study of the Japanese Economy," Macroeconomics 0504012, EconWPA.
  6. Dekle, Robert & Kletzer, Kenneth, 2004. "Deposit Insurance, Regulatory Forbearance and Economic Growth: Implications for the Japanese Banking Crisis," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6g87q2hm, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2009. "The boom and the bust of the Japanese economy: A quantitative look at the period 1980-2000," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 116-131, January.
  8. HOSONO Kaoru, 2009. "Financial Crisis, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity in Japan," Discussion papers 09012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  9. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2003. "Deflation Caused by Bank Insolvency," Discussion papers 03022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Kletzer, Kenneth, 2004. "Liberalizing Capital Flows in India: Financial Repression, Macroeconomic Policy and Gradual Reforms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3kj2w649, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Robert Dekle & Kenneth Kletzer, 2004. "Deposit insurance, regulatory forbearance and economic growth: implications for the Japanese banking crisis," Working Paper Series 2004-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2003. "A Theory of Banking Crises (Part 1)," Discussion papers 03016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  13. Kletzer, Kenneth, 2004. "Liberalizing Capital Flows in India: Financial Repression, Macroeconomic Policy and Gradual Reforms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9h27k0ff, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  14. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2006. "Amplifying Business Cycles through Credit Constraints," MPRA Paper 1808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Chakraborty, Suparna & Allen, Linda, 2007. "Revisiting the Level Playing Field: International Lending Responses to Divergences in Japanese Bank Capital Regulations from the Basel Accord," MPRA Paper 1805, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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