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Real Estate Prices, Borrowing Constraints and Business Cycles -A Study of the Japanese Economy

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Author Info
Suparna Chakraborty (University of Minnesota & Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of business cycle fluctuations that Japan experienced over the period 1980 to 2000. To this end, I build a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous borrowing constraints where business cycle fluctuations are the result of TFP fluctuations and investment frictions. I identify land tax changes since 1984 as a possible source of investment frictions, the idea being that given a strong preference for debt-financing and widespread use of land as collateral in Japan, land tax changes will cause fluctuations in land price that can potentially affect output and investment by affecting borrowing capacity of firms. Calibrating the model using Japanese data and feeding in observed TFP and land taxes one by one and in unison, I find that TFP and land tax fluctuations can significantly account for observed fluctuations in output, but cannot account for land price fluctuations unless agents expect land tax changes to be permanent. I further identify redistribution of land holding between commercial and residential uses in response to land tax and TFP changes as an important channel through which the effect of these external fluctuations on output gets amplified. Observed data of land use in Japan provides evidence of such redistribution.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0504012.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0504012

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 60
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Keywords: Real estate; borrowing constraint; business cycle; japan;

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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Accounting for the Great Depression (technical appendix)," Working Papers 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Pedro Amaral & James C. MacGee, 2002. "The Great Depression in Canada and the United States: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 45-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2006. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1987. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 2318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 1999. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Working Papers 7250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. McGrattan, Ellen R., 1996. "Solving the stochastic growth model with a finite element method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 19-42. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  15. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-24. [Downloadable!]
  18. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Computational Methods For The Study Of Dynamic Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 257-261, June. [Downloadable!]
  20. D. Woo, 1999. "In Search of "Capital Crunch" - Supply Factors Behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan," IMF Working Papers 99/3, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jahangir Aziz, 2007. "Rebalancing China's Economy: What Does Growth Theory Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 06/291, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jahangir Aziz, 2008. "Real and Financial Sector Linkages in China and India," IMF Working Papers 08/95, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jahangir Aziz, . "Deconstructing China's and India's Growth: the Role of Financial Policies," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 224, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  4. C Niranjan Rao, 2008. "The Role of Intellectual Property Rights in Information and Communication Technologies," Working Papers id:1742, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jahangir Aziz, 2008. "Deconstructing China’s and India’s Growth: The Role of Financial Policies," Working Papers id:1714, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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