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Scope for Cost Minimization in Public Debt Management: the Case of the UK

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Author Info
Coe, P.J.
Pesaran, M.H.
Vahey, S.P.

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Abstract

This paper provides a framework for an empirical analysis of the scope for cost minimization in public debt management. It assumes that a debt manager aims at minimizing the expected cost of government’s debt portfolio for a given level of short term interest rate and subject to a number of risk and market impact constraints. The analysis is applied to the UK government debt over the period April 1985 to March 2000, by simulating “real time” interest costs of alternative portfolios constructed using monthly forecasts of return spreads based on recursive modelling (RM) procedure recently developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (1995, 2000), which limits the extent of data snooping. Statistically significant evidence of predictability of return spreads are provided before the introduction of reforms of the UK debt management system in 1995, although there seems to be little evidence of predictability once the post reform sample is included. Nevertheless, there appears to have been some scope for a small reduction in interest costs over the 1985-2000 period even if portfolio shares and their monthly changes are constrained to lie within historically observed upper and lower bounds in order to minimize the market impact effects of such changes.

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Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0338.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: Aug 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0338

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Related research
Keywords: Public debt management cost minimization recursive modelling data snooping

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Egginton, Donald & Andreas Pick & Shaun P. Vahey, 2002. "Keep It Real!: A Real-time UK Macro Data Set," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 69, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
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  3. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  5. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bohn, Henning, 1990. "Tax Smoothing with Financial Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1217-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation - A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2000-09, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. D M Egginton & S G Hall, . "An investigation of the effect of funding on the slope of the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 6, Bank of England.
  11. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G., 1994. "A generalization of the non-parametric Henriksson-Merton test of market timing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. George J. Hall & Thomas J. Sargent, 1997. "Accounting for the federal government's cost of funds," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jul, pages 18-28. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bohn, Henning, 1988. "Why do we have nominal government debt?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-91, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Pesaran, H.M. & Potter, S.M., 1995. "A Floor and Ceiling Model of U.S. Output," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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