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Monetary stabilisation policy in a monetary union: some simple analytics

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Andrew Brigden
Charles Nolan

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Abstract

This paper does two things. First it looks at some simple models of monetary decision-making in a monetary union and asks how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. The question is asnwered analytically, and the simple model is then calibrated. The model has few structual equations, but does allow an analysis of the relationship between output and inflation variability and certain key parameters. Any conclusions, in this respect, are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, the paper goes on to identify a second-best issue concerning the optimal make-up of the union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values, and shocks are perfectly correlated, will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 102.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:102

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chadha, J.S. & Hudson, S.L., 1998. "The Optimum Currency Area Case for EMU: A Structural VAR Approach," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9815, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  2. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1996. "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 111-16, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  4. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Minford, Patrick, 1986. "When International Policy Coordination Matters: An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hughes Hallett, A J, 1986. "Autonomy and the Choice of Policy in Asymmetrically Dependent Economies: An Investigation of the Gains from International Policy Co-ordination," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 516-44, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Hughes Hallett, A J, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Asymmetric Policy Regimes: When Does Exchange Rate Targeting Pay?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 191-206, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  13. Andrew Atkeson & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "Reconsidering the Costs of Business Cycles with Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 4719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Laurence M. Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer, 1989. "The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," NBER Reprints 1111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1993. "Designing institutions for monetary stability," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 53-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Martin Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 5469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Hallet, A. J. Hughes, 1994. "On the imperfect substitutability of policy regimes : Exchange rate targetting vs policy coordination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 159-164. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mervyn King, 1996. "How should central banks reduce inflation? conceptual issues," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 53-91. [Downloadable!]
  22. Swank, Otto H, 1997. "Some Evidence on Policy Makers' Motives, Macroeconomic Performance and Output-Inflation Trade-Offs," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 251-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "The Cost of Heterogeneity in a Monetary Union," Working Papers 0128, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Buiter, Willem H, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does The Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Moïse Sidiropoulos & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union Under Alternative Labour-Market Structures," Working Papers of BETA 2006-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Diana N. Weymark, 2002. "Government Leadership and Central Bank Design," Working Papers 0208, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  5. W.H. Buiter, 2000. "Optimal Currency Areas: Why Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (With an Application to UK Membership in EMU)," CEP Discussion Papers 0462, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  6. Buiter, Willem H, 2000. "Monetary Misconceptions: New and Old Paradigmata and Other Sad Tales," CEPR Discussion Papers 2365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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