Some Preliminary Evidence on the Globalization-Inflation Nexus
AbstractThis paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends on the volume of commodity imports while the impact of non-commodity import price inflation is independent of the volume of non-commodity imports. Second, focusing on the role of intra-industry trade, we provide preliminary evidence that this variable can account (i) for the low pass-through of import price to consumer price and (ii) for the flattening of the Phillips curve, i.e. the lower sensitivity of inflation to the output gap.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 195.
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Inflation ; Globalization ; Phillips curve ; Intra-industry trade ; Contestability ; Import prices.;
Other versions of this item:
- Sophie Guilloux & Enisse Kharroubi, 2008. "Some preliminary evidence on the globalization-inflation nexus," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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