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Inflation Dynamics under Fiscal Deficit Regime Switching in Mexico

Author

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  • Ramos Francia Manuel
  • García-Verdú Santiago
  • Sánchez-Martínez Manuel

Abstract

We explore the dynamics of inflation, inflation expectations, and seigniorage-financed fiscal deficits in Mexico. To do so, we estimate the model in Sargent, Williams, and Zha (2009) using Mexican CPI inflation data. This model features dual expected inflation equilibriums and regime switching in the mean and variance of the fiscal deficit probability density function. We examine the dynamics of inflation and mean fiscal deficit regimes. In addition, we comment on the extent to which our results match to key economic events. Mexico has successfully stabilized inflation expectations for the past decades, an achievement for which fiscal policy has been fundamental. Nevertheless, this does not preclude the possibility of an increase in the expected price level or a switch to a regime in which inflation and its expectations become unstable.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramos Francia Manuel & García-Verdú Santiago & Sánchez-Martínez Manuel, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics under Fiscal Deficit Regime Switching in Mexico," Working Papers 2018-21, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2018-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. López-Martín, Bernabé & Ramírez de Aguilar, Alberto & Samano, Daniel, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation: Understanding the Role of Expectations in Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9025, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    3. Willem Buiter, 2000. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again," CESifo Working Paper Series 303, CESifo.
    4. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, April.
    5. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November.
    6. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    7. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    8. Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2005. "Reducing Inflation Through Inflation Targeting: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2005-01, Banco de México.
    9. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
    10. Sachs, J.D., 1989. "New Approaches To The Latin American Debt Crisis," Princeton Studies in International Economics 174, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Inflation Expectations; Public Deficit; Fiscal Deficit; Regime-Switching; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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