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Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve

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  • Ramos-Francia, Manuel
  • Torres, Alberto

Abstract

This paper describes the dynamics of inflation in the Mexican economy from 1992 to 2007 using the New Phillips curve framework. The purpose is to identify key structural characteristics of the economy (structural parameters) that define the short-run dynamics of inflation. Results show that despite a previous history of high inflation, a hybrid version of the New Phillips curve fits the data well for the period 1992-2007. The short-run dynamics of inflation in Mexico are best described when both backward- and forward-looking components are considered. In addition, estimates for the sub-sample 1997-2007 show that as inflation has fallen, on average prices remain fixed for a longer horizon, the fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule of thumb to set their price decreases and the forward-looking component of the inflation process gains importance.

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  • Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:274-289
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    Cited by:

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    2. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.
    3. Best, Gabriela, 2013. "Fear of floating or monetary policy as usual? A structural analysis of Mexico's monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 45-62.
    4. García-Verdú Santiago, 2012. "The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Working Papers 2012-06, Banco de México.
    5. Steffen Ahrens & Stephen Sacht, 2014. "Estimating a high-frequency New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 607-628, March.
    6. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2014. "Monetary Policy and Inequality in Mexico," MPRA Paper 57074, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mutiu Gbade Rasaki, 2017. "An Estimated New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(2), pages 203-211, April.
    8. André Marine Charlotte & Medina Espidio Sebastián, 2022. "Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2022-17, Banco de México.
    9. Tarek Kacemi & Sallahuddin Hassan, 2018. "Inflation dynamics analysis in selected MENA countries," Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 6(2), pages :160-168, June.
    10. Sylvia Beatriz Guillermo Peón & Martín Alberto Rodríguez Brindis, 2014. "Analyzing the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mexico: Evidence Post Inflation Targeting Implementation," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(74), pages 18-35, June.
    11. Jarko Fidrmuc & Katarína Danišková, 2020. "Meta-Analysis of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Developed and Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 10-31, January.
    12. Eduardo Loría & Raúl Tirado, 2022. "Sacrifice rate and labour precariousness in Mexico, 2005Q1-2019Q4," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 41(87), pages 427-456, December.
    13. Francisco G. Villarreal, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Inequality under Household Heterogeneity and Incomplete Markets," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 45(90), pages 74-110.
    14. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).

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