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Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform

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Author Info
Bruno, Michael
Abstract

The concept of economic reform is described as a planned shift from one Pareto inefficient, but quasi-stable, Nash equilibrium (or "trap") to a new Pareto superior equilibrium, which will also be stable. The concept is applied to recent "shock" stabilization programs, with special reference to Israel, where the economy was credibly shifted from a three-digit inflationary process, with considerable inertia, to relative price stability with higher real growth, at only moderate adjustment costs, by means of a "heterodox" plan. The idea is rationalized with a simple dual equilibrium inflation model, for which some econometric estimates are also given. Copyright 1989 by The Econometric Society.

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Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 57 (1989)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 275-306
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:57:y:1989:i:2:p:275-306

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  1. Michael Bruno, 1990. "High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 3518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sergey Pekarski, 2007. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Working Papers WP13_2007_12, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alexandre Sokic, 2007. "Monetary hyperinflations, speculative hyperinflations and modelling the use of money," Working Papers of BETA 2007-05, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. William Ricardo de Sá, 1998. "Repensando os jogos de política econômica com governos sinceramente estabilizadores," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td122, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
  5. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Are Stationary Hyperinflation Paths Learnable?," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/15, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Klaus Adam & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Are Hyperinflationary Paths Learnable?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-31, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 22 Apr 2005. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mª Jose Gutierrez & Jesús Vazquez, 2003. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 200227, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
  8. James B. Bullard & Alvin L. Marty, 1998. "What has become of the "stability-through-inflation" argument?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 37-45. [Downloadable!]
  9. Krzysztof Rybinski, 1997. "Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 127-179, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alexandre Sokic, 2008. "Theoretical support for a new class of demand for real cash balances in explosive hyperinflations," Working Papers of BETA 2008-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
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