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Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard

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  • Paul R. Masson
  • Malik D. Shukayev

Abstract

Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. It suggests that PT would likely operate with an escape clause that allowed rebasing of the price target in the face of large output declines. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we show that such an escape clause can produce multiple equilibria. For some parameterizations, there is a low credibility equilibrium (with high expectation of a reset) associated with high output volatility and frequent resets. These problems reduce the expectational advantage of PT over inflation targeting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-27.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-27

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Keywords: Credibility; Monetary policy framework;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2012. "Price-Level Targeting – A Viable Alternative To Inflation Targeting?," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 809-823, December.
  2. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "Indexed versus nominal government debt under inflation and price-level targeting," Working Papers 2013_11, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  3. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting," Working Papers 2013_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

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