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Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard

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Author Info
Paul R. Masson
Malik D. Shukayev

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Abstract

Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. It suggests that PT would likely operate with an escape clause that allowed rebasing of the price target in the face of large output declines. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we show that such an escape clause can produce multiple equilibria. For some parameterizations, there is a low credibility equilibrium (with high expectation of a reset) associated with high output volatility and frequent resets. These problems reduce the expectational advantage of PT over inflation targeting.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 08-27.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:08-27

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Related research
Keywords: Credibility; Monetary policy framework;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Laidler & Robin Banerjee, 2008. "Unstable Foundations: Assets Markets, Inflation Targets, and Canada's 2011 Policy Choices," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 278, December. [Downloadable!]
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