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The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries

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Author Info

  • Yunus Aksoy

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Tobias Grasl

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

  • Ron P Smith

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main macroeconomic variables allows us to estimate long-run effects of demographic structure on the individual countries. Our estimates confirm the importance of these effects.

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File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2012/PDFs/BWPEF1212.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1212.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1212

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Keywords: demographic changes; macroeconomic variables; business cycle;

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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  2. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Solving the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle With Financial Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 603-632, 03.
  3. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
  6. Cheolbeom Park, 2010. "How does changing age distribution impact stock prices? A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1155-1178, November/.
  7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 3108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
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Cited by:
  1. Gudmundur S. Gudmundsson & Gylfi Zoega, 2013. "Age structure and the current account," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1307, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

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