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Bidding at Sequential First-Price Auctions with(out) Supply Uncertainty: A Laboratory Analysis

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Author Info
Tibor Neugebauer
Paul Pezanis-Christou ()

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Abstract

We report on a series of experiments that test the effects of an uncertain supply on the formation of bids and prices in sequential first-price auctions with private-independent values and unit-demands. Supply is assumed uncertain when buyers do not know the exact number of units to be sold (i.e., the length of the sequence). Although we observe a non-monotone behavior when supply is certain and an important overbidding, the data qualitatively support our price trend predictions and the risk neutral Nash equilibrium model of bidding for the last stage of a sequence, whether supply is certain or not. Our study shows that behavior in these markets changes significantly with the presence of an uncertain supply, and that it can be explained by assuming that bidders formulate pessimistic beliefs about the occurrence of another stage.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 558.03.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:558.03

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Related research
Keywords: sequential first-price auctions; independent private values; unit-demand; supply uncertainty; bidding behavior; price trends; experimental economics;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions
C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pezanis-Christou, P., 1996. "Sequential Auctions with Supply Uncertainty," Papers 96/15, New South Wales - School of Economics.
  2. Penny Burns, 1985. "Experience and Decision Making: A Comparison of Students and Businessmen in a Simulated Progressive Auction," Framed Field Experiments 0016, The Field Experiments Website.
  3. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Ossard, Herve & Vuong, Quang, 1995. "Econometrics of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 953-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Beggs, A. & Graddy, K., 1996. "Declining Values and the Afternoon Effect: Evidence from Art Auctions," Economics Series Working Papers 99184, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Hausch, Donald B., 1988. "A model of sequential auctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 227-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bernhardt, Dan & Scoones, David, 1994. "A Note on Sequential Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 653-57, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Katzman, Brett, 1999. "A Two Stage Sequential Auction with Multi-Unit Demands," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 77-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Laffont, J.-J. & Loisel, P. & Robert, J., 1998. "Intra-Day Dynamics in Sequential Auctions: Theory and Estimation," Papers 98.488, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  9. McAfee R. Preston & Vincent Daniel, 1993. "The Declining Price Anomaly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 191-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cox, James C & Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1988. " Theory and Individual Behavior of First-Price Auctions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 61-99, March.
  11. Abbink, Klaus & Abdolkarim Sadrieh, 1995. "RatImage - research Assistance Toolbox for Computer-Aided Human Behavior Experiments," Discussion Paper Serie B 325, University of Bonn, Germany.
  12. Ashenfelter, Orley & Genesove, David, 1992. "Testing for Price Anomalies in Real-Estate Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 501-05, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jeitschko, Thomas D., 1999. "Equilibrium price paths in sequential auctions with stochastic supply," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 67-72, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Pitchik, Carolyn & Schotter, Andrew, 1986. "Perfect Equilibria in Budget Constrained Sequential Auctions: An Experimental Study," Working Papers 86-22, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Black, Jane & De Meza, David, 1992. "Systematic Price Differences between Successive Auctions Are No Anomaly," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 607-28, Winter.
  16. Ashenfelter, Orley, 1989. "How Auctions Work for Wine and Art," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 23-36, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gale Ian L. & Hausch Donald B., 1994. "Bottom-Fishing and Declining Prices in Sequential Auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 318-331, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Victor A. Ginsburgh, 1998. "Absentee Bidders and the Declining Price Anomaly in Wine Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1302-1331, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Gandal, Neil, 1997. "Sequential Auctions of Interdependent Objects: Israeli Cable Television Licenses," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(3), pages 227-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Chen, Kay-Yut & Plott, Charles R., 1998. "Nonlinear Behavior in Sealed Bid First Price Auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 34-78, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Engelbrecht-Wiggans, Richard, 1994. "Sequential auctions of stochastically equivalent objects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Milgrom, Paul R & Weber, Robert J, 1982. "A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1089-1122, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tanga McDaniel & Andreas Nicklisch, 2004. "Prices as indicators of scarcity - an experimental study of a multistage auction," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2004-30, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tibor Neugebauer, 2005. "Bidding Strategies Of Sequential First Price Auctions Programmed By Experienced Bidders," Experimental 0503007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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