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Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil

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Author Info
Inez Sílvia Batista Castro (UFPE e UNIFOR)
José Carlos de Lacerda Leite (PIMES e UFPB)
Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to find an alternative way of estimation of the probabilities of devalutation instead of the traditional method Logit. The methodology is based on Olivier Jeanne (1997) and several articles of Svensson and Rose. Logit models have certain degree of subjectivity on the determination of the periods of crisis and periods of non-crisis. Jeanne’s method tries to tackle out this problem and it seems appropriate to Brazilian economy. After estimating the probabilities of devaluation in Brazilian economy in the period july/94-january/99, there is an investigation of the variables that may influence that probability. Some variables that are described in the first and in the second generation models of balance of payments crisis are considered statistically significants to determine the probability of devaluation.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number c05.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2003:c05

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Related research
Keywords: Balance of Payments Crisis; Causes of Speculative Attacks; Brazilian Economy in the 90’s; Exchange Rate Devaluation; Drift adjustment method.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," NBER Working Papers 6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 395, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
  10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert P. Flood & Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Working Papers 91/99, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
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