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How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study using Multiple-Response Models

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  • Tassos Anastasatos

    ()
    (Dept of Economics Univ. of Loughborough)

  • Ian R. Davidson

    ()
    (Business School Univ. of Loughborough)

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    Abstract

    This paper presents formal evidence that currency episodes display heterogeneity in terms of their evolution, their impact on the inflicted economy and their links with financial, political and macroeconomic fundamentals. Limited-dependent variable models for ordered and unordered outcomes along with their heteroskedastic and random effects extensions are applied on a large panel of data comprising 40 years of monthly observations on 23 developed countries. Heterogeneity, complemented by indications of self-fulfilling expectations and noise, suggest that time and region specific predictive approaches and policy responses are more useful than trying to base analysis and policy decisions on more general patterns. Results are established with formal specification tests.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2004_23.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2004
    Date of revision: Dec 2004
    Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2004_23

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    Keywords: Currency crises; speculative pressure; exchange rate; devaluation; Limited-dependent variable models.;

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