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Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents

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  • Diks, C.G.H.

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Dindo, P.D.E.

    ()
    (Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa)

Abstract

The price formation mechanism in an asset market with boundedly rational agents can be viewed as a filter acting on incoming news about economic fundamentals such as future dividends. Here we study the properties of an asset pricing market filter obtained under some simple behavioral assumptions, and examine the resulting dynamical structure of the fluctuations of the market price around the time-varying underlying fundamental reference price. The starting point is an asset pricing model in which agents can choose among two different degrees of information on fundamentals. At the same time agents are also learning the growth rate of the dividend generating process. This leads to prices that deviate substantially and persistently from the fundamental value in the short run but stay close to it in the long run. In particular, prices follow a time-varying nonlinear mean reverting dynamics which we show to be related to agents' interaction triggered by informational differences.

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File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/dd_wp_0611.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 06-11.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:06-11

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Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
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Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
  3. Yi Xue & Ramazan Gencay, 2009. "Hierarchical Information and the Rate of Information Diffusion," Working Paper Series 29_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  4. De Kamps, Marc & Ladley, Daniel & Simaitis, Aistis, 2014. "Heterogeneous beliefs in over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 50-68.
  5. Marc de Kamps & Daniel Ladley & Aistis Simaitis, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs in Over-The-Counter Markets," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/03, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Sep 2013.
  6. Panchenko, Valentyn & Gerasymchuk, Sergiy & Pavlov, Oleg V., 2013. "Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2623-2642.
  7. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
  8. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2013. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Local Network Interactions," Discussion Papers 2013-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  9. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
  10. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
  11. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
  12. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
  13. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.

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