IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ajk/ajkdps/018.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

(Why) do central banks care about their profits?

Author

Listed:
  • Igor Goncharov

    (Lancaster University)

  • Vasso Ioannidou

    (Lancaster University)

  • Martin C. Schmalz

    (University of Oxford, CEPR, and ECGI)

Abstract

We document that central banks are significantly more likely to report slightly positive profits than slightly negative profits, especially amid greater political pressure, the public’s receptiveness to more extreme political views, and when governors are reappointable. The propensity to report small profits over small losses is correlated with more lenient monetary policy and higher inflation. We conclude that profitability concerns, although absent from standard theory, are present and effective in practice. These findings inform a debate about the political economy of central banking, monetary stability, and the effectiveness of non-traditional central banking.

Suggested Citation

  • Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2020. "(Why) do central banks care about their profits?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 018, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_018_2020.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Galego Mendes & Tiago Couto Berriel, "undated". "Central Bank Balance Sheet, Liquidity Trap, and Quantitative Easing," Textos para discussão 638, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. SANJEEV BHOJRAJ & PAUL HRIBAR & MARC PICCONI & JOHN McINNIS, 2009. "Making Sense of Cents: An Examination of Firms That Marginally Miss or Beat Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2361-2388, October.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Jeffrey B. Liebman & Neale Mahoney, 2017. "Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3510-3549, November.
    5. Olivier Jeanne & Lars E. O. Svensson, 2007. "Credible Commitment to Optimal Escape from a Liquidity Trap: The Role of the Balance Sheet of an Independent Central Bank," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 474-490, March.
    6. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2020. "A Central Bank Theory of Price Level Determination," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 258-283, July.
    7. Mr. Peter Stella & Mr. Ulrich H Klueh, 2008. "Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance: An Econometric Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2008/176, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    10. Miguel Urquiola & Eric Verhoogen, 2009. "Class-Size Caps, Sorting, and the Regression-Discontinuity Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 179-215, March.
    11. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    12. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    13. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    14. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2014. "Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 189-259, March.
    15. Mary E. Barth & Wayne R. Landsman & Mark H. Lang, 2008. "International Accounting Standards and Accounting Quality," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 467-498, June.
    16. Dreher, Axel & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 778-787, December.
    17. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
    18. Bennett, Benjamin & Bettis, J. Carr & Gopalan, Radhakrishnan & Milbourn, Todd, 2017. "Compensation goals and firm performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 307-330.
    19. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 135-140, May.
    20. Gustavo Adler & Pedro Castro & Camilo Tovar, 2016. "Does Central Bank Capital Matter for Monetary Policy?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 183-205, February.
    21. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2005. "The economic implications of corporate financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 3-73, December.
    22. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    23. Gauti Eggertsson & Bulat Gafarov & Saroj Bhatarai, 2014. "Time Consistency and the Duration of Government Debt: A Signalling Theory of Quantitative Easing," 2014 Meeting Papers 1292, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    25. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    26. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    27. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    28. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Veronika K. Pool, 2009. "Do Hedge Fund Managers Misreport Returns? Evidence from the Pooled Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2288, October.
    29. Jagjit S. Chadha & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices, and Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 529-552, November.
    30. Ilia D. Dichev & Douglas J. Skinner, 2002. "Large–Sample Evidence on the Debt Covenant Hypothesis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 1091-1123, September.
    31. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    32. Hall, Robert, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 10741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Del Negro, Marco & Sims, Christopher A., 2015. "When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-19.
    34. Mr. Peter Stella, 2008. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Policy Constraints and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2008/049, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Jeremy C. Stein, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets, Inefficient Firms: A Model of Myopic Corporate Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 655-669.
    36. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    37. Mr. Robert Tchaidze & Ms. Alina Carare, 2005. "The Use and Abuse of Taylor Rules: How Precisely Can We Estimate Them?," IMF Working Papers 2005/148, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Berriel Tiago C & Bhattarai Saroj, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Central Bank Balance Sheet Concerns," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-33, January.
    39. Cindy Durtschi & Peter Easton, 2005. "Earnings Management? The Shapes of the Frequency Distributions of Earnings Metrics Are Not Evidence Ipso Facto," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 557-592, September.
    40. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    41. Leuz, Christian & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wysocki, Peter D., 2003. "Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 505-527, September.
    42. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    43. David Archer & Paul Moser-Boehm, 2013. "Central bank finances," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 71.
    44. Charles Goodhart & Rosa Lastra, 2018. "Populism and Central Bank Independence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 49-68, February.
    45. Daniel Bergstresser & Mihir Desai & Joshua Rauh, 2006. "Earnings Manipulation, Pension Assumptions, and Managerial Investment Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(1), pages 157-195.
    46. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, March.
    47. Mark J. Garmaise, 2015. "Borrower Misreporting and Loan Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 449-484, February.
    48. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    49. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2012. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update," IMF Working Papers 2012/163, International Monetary Fund.
    50. Scott E. Hein, 2004. "Improving Tests of Abnormal Returns by Bootstrapping the Multivariate Regression Model with Event Parameters," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 451-471.
    51. Burgstahler, David & Dichev, Ilia, 1997. "Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 99-126, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pinter, Julien & Pourroy, Marc, 2023. "How can financial constraints force a central bank to exit a currency peg? An application to the Swiss franc peg," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Matsuoka, Tarishi, 2022. "Asset prices and standing facilities in a monetary economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Anantha Divakaruni & Peter Zimmerman, 2021. "Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks," Working Papers 21-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Zbigniew Polański & Mikołaj Szadkowski, 2021. "An accounting-based model of seigniorage, and recent monetary developments," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(5), pages 391-436.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Igor Goncharov & Vasso Ioannidou & Martin C. Schmalz, 2017. "(Why) Do Central Banks Care About Their Profits?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6546, CESifo.
    2. Julien Pinter, 2018. "Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 911-952, November.
    3. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    4. Atsushi Tanaka, 2021. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 249-262, June.
    5. Atsushi Tanaka, 2020. "Central Bank Capital and Credibility: A Literature Survey," Discussion Paper Series 208, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised May 2020.
    6. Michele Cavallo & Marco Del Negro & W. Scott Frame & Jamie Grasing & Benjamin A. Malin & Carlo Rosa, 2019. "Fiscal Implications of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Normalization," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(5), pages 255-306, December.
    7. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2020. "Non-neutrality of Open-Market Operations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 175-226, July.
    8. D. Masciandaro, 2019. "What Bird Is That? Central Banking And Monetary Policy In The Last Forty Years," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19127, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Byzalov, Dmitri & Basu, Sudipta, 2019. "Modeling the determinants of meet-or-just-beat behavior in distribution discontinuity tests," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2).
    10. Perera, Anil & Ralston, Deborah & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2013. "Central bank financial strength and inflation: Is there a robust link?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 399-414.
    11. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    12. Owen F. Humpage & Sanchita Mukherjee, 2013. "Even keel and the Great Inflation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    13. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    14. Vítor Castro, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," NIPE Working Papers 19/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Zhu, Sheng & Kavanagh, Ella & O’Sullivan, Niall, 2021. "Inflation targeting and financial conditions: UK monetary policy during the great moderation and financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    17. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
    18. Campa, Domenico, 2019. "Earnings management strategies during financial difficulties: A comparison between listed and unlisted French companies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 457-471.
    19. Robert E. Hall & Ricardo Reis, 2015. "Maintaining Central-Bank Financial Stability under New-Style Central Banking," NBER Working Papers 21173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sebastian Lebert & Ulf Mohrmann & Ulrike Stefani, 2021. "Rounding up performance measures in German firms: Earnings cosmetics or earnings management on a larger scale?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3-4), pages 564-586, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Banks; Profitability; Non-Traditional Central Banking; Monetary Stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECONtribute Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econtribute.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.