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Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?

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Emmanuel Saez

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether taxpayers bunch at the kink points of the US income tax schedule (i.e. where marginal rates jump) using tax returns data. Clear evidence of bunching is found only at the first kink point (where marginal rates jump from 0 to 15%). Evidence for other kink points is weak or null. Evidence of bunching is stronger for itemizers than for non-itemizers. Theoretical models of behavioral responses to taxation show that bunching is proportional to the compensated elasticity of income with respect to tax rates. These models are used to perform simulations of bunching and calibrate the key parameters (the behavioral elasticity and the extent to which taxpayers control their income) to the empirical income distributions. Except for low income earners, the behavioral elasticity consistent with the empirical results is small.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7366.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7366

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H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Aaron Yelowitz, 1995. "The Medicaid Notch, Labor Supply and Welfare Participation: Evidence from Eligibility Expansions," UCLA Economics Working Papers 738, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Burtless, Gary & Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "The Effect of Taxation on Labor Supply: Evaluating the Gary Negative Income Tax Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1103-30, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Moffitt, Robert, 1990. "The Econometrics of Kinked Budget Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 119-39, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Saez, Emmanuel, 2003. "The effect of marginal tax rates on income: a panel study of 'bracket creep'," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1231-1258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Mirrlees, James A, 1971. "An Exploration in the Theory of Optimum Income Taxation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(114), pages 175-208, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  8. Macurdy, T. & Green, D. & Paarsch, H., 1990. "Assessing Empirical Approaches For Analyzing Taxes And Labor Supply," Papers e-90-11, Stanford - Hoover Institution.
  9. Austan Goolsbee, 1997. "What Happens When You Tax the Rich? Evidence from Executive Compensation," NBER Working Papers 6333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Horacio Levy & José Ricardo Nogueira & Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira & Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue, 2008. "Simulating the impact of inflation on the progressivity of personal income tax in Brazil," LATINMOD Working Papers Series 2008-01, Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México. [Downloadable!]
  2. William M. Gentry & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2002. "The Effects of Progressive Income Taxation on Job Turnover," NBER Working Papers 9226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Nada Eissa & Hilary Hoynes, 2005. "Behavioral Responses to Taxes: Lessons from the EITC and Labor Supply," NBER Working Papers 11729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2007. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nuno Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2005. "The impact of interest-rate subsidies on long-term household debt: evidence from a large program," DNB Working Papers 026, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bruce Chapman & Andrew Leigh, 2006. "Do Very High Tax Rates Induce Bunching? Implications for the Design of Income-Contingent Loan Schemes," CEPR Discussion Papers 521, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Justin McCrary, 2007. "Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test," NBER Technical Working Papers 0334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Immervoll H, 2004. "Falling up the stairs. An exploration of the effects of "bracket creep" on household incomes," EUROMOD Working Papers em3/04, EUROMOD at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  9. Emmanuel Saez, 2004. "Reported Incomes and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960-2000: Evidence and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 10273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jesse Rothstein, 2005. "The Mid-1990s EITC Expansion: Aggregate Labor Supply Effects and Economic Incidence," Working Papers 883, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  11. Leora Friedberg & Anthony Webb, 2006. "Persistence in Labor Supply and the Response to the Social Security Earnings Test," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2006-27, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
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