IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v107y2017i11p3510-49.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey B. Liebman
  • Neale Mahoney

Abstract

Many organizations have budgets that expire at the end of the fiscal year and may face incentives to rush to spend resources on low-quality projects at year's end. We test these predictions using data on procurement spending by the US federal government. Spending in the last week of the year is 4.9 times higher than the rest-of-the-year weekly average, and year-end information technology projects have substantially lower quality ratings. We also analyze the gains from allowing agencies to roll over unused funds into the next fiscal year.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey B. Liebman & Neale Mahoney, 2017. "Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3510-3549, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:11:p:3510-49
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20131296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131296
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=5683
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=fjxS4n5YJLWBBg9_kY2aiNW9aTjuWTL_
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=7zFNnwfc5Af8VWOapRydRO-GvUR_ZDZm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    2. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
    3. Greene,William H. & Hensher,David A., 2010. "Modeling Ordered Choices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521142373.
    4. Paul Oyer, 1998. "Fiscal Year Ends and Nonlinear Incentive Contracts: The Effect on Business Seasonality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 149-185.
    5. Carroll, Christopher D & Kimball, Miles S, 1996. "On the Concavity of the Consumption Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 981-992, July.
    6. Cardon, James H. & Showalter, Mark H., 2001. "An examination of flexible spending accounts," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 935-954, November.
    7. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Tirole, Jean, 1986. "Using Cost Observation to Regulate Firms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 614-641, June.
    8. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 2010. "Consumption and Saving: Models of Intertemporal Allocation and Their Implications for Public Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 693-751, September.
    9. Narayana Kocherlakota, 2004. "Figuring out the Impact of Hidden Savings on Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(3), pages 541-554, July.
    10. Greene,William H. & Hensher,David A., 2010. "Modeling Ordered Choices," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521194204.
    11. Xavier Freixas & Roger Guesnerie & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Planning under Incomplete Information and the Ratchet Effect," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(2), pages 173-191.
    12. William P. Rogerson, 1994. "Economic Incentives and the Defense Procurement Process," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 65-90, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liebman, Jeffrey B. & Mahoney, Neale, 2013. "Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement," Working Paper Series rwp13-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Steffen Andersen & Philippe d'Astous & Jimmy Martínez-Correa & Stephen H. Shore, 2018. "Responses to Savings Commitments: Evidence from Mortgage Run-offs," Cahiers de recherche / Working Papers 1, Institut sur la retraite et l'épargne / Retirement and Savings Institute.
    3. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    4. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    5. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2002. "Soft liquidity constraints and precautionary saving," Bank of England working papers 158, Bank of England.
    6. Francis, Johanna L., 2009. "Wealth and the capitalist spirit," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 394-408, September.
    7. Padula, Mario, 2010. "An approximate consumption function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 404-416, March.
    8. Filip Premik & Ewa Stanisławska, 2017. "The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, January.
    9. Allen, Todd W. & Carroll, Christopher D., 2001. "Individual Learning About Consumption," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 255-271, April.
    10. Daniel Hojman & Alvaro Miranda & Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, 2013. "Over Indebtedness and Depression: Sad Debt or Sad Debtors?," Working Papers wp385, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    11. Fulford, Scott L., 2015. "The surprisingly low importance of income uncertainty for precaution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 151-171.
    12. Sattinger, Michael, 2011. "The Markov consumption problem," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4-5), pages 409-416.
    13. Cheolbeom Park & Thomas Bishop, 2004. "Precautionary Saving, Borrowing Constraints, and Fiscal Policy," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 706, Econometric Society.
    14. Winfried Koeniger & Thomas Hintermaier, 2007. "Incomplete Markets and the Evolution of US Consumer Debt," 2007 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Scott L. Fulford, 2020. "Demand for emergency savings is higher for low-income households, but so is the cost of shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 3007-3033, June.
    16. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection In Insurance Markets: A Selective Survey," Cahiers de recherche 9105, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    17. Flórez, Luz A., 2017. "Informal sector under saving: A positive analysis of labour market policies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 13-26.
    18. Mr. Christopher Carroll & Mr. Martin Sommer & Mr. Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects," IMF Working Papers 2012/219, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Alexander L. Brown & Zhikang Eric Chua & Colin F. Camerer, 2009. "Learning and Visceral Temptation in Dynamic Saving Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 197-231.
    20. An, Wookhyun & Alarcón, Silverio, 2021. "Rural tourism preferences in Spain: Best-worst choices," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:11:p:3510-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.