Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare
AbstractWe use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects according to the disease status of countries occur. The welfare results confirm that a trade ban is not the most appropriate measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 122022.
Date of creation: 13 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
animal disease; quarantine measure; non-tariff measure; welfare; gravity model; simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; F14; F17; Q11; Q17; Q18;
Other versions of this item:
- Christine Wieck & Simon W. Schlüter & Wolfgang Britz, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(8), pages 1037-1052, 08.
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-04-17 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-04-17 (Computational Economics)
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