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Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

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  • Wieck, Christine
  • Schlueter, Simon W.
  • Britz, Wolfgang

Abstract

We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects according to the disease status of countries occur. The welfare results confirm that a trade ban is not the most appropriate measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 122022.

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Date of creation: 13 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ubfred:122022

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Web page: http://www.ilr1.uni-bonn.de/
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Keywords: animal disease; quarantine measure; non-tariff measure; welfare; gravity model; simulation model; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; F14; F17; Q11; Q17; Q18;

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  9. Djunaidi, Harjanto & Djunaidi, Andrew C.M., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(02), August.
  10. David Abler & Adrián Rodríguez & James Shortle, 1999. "Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Environmental Impacts of Economic Policies," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 75-94, July.
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  12. Jarkko K. Niemi & Heikki Lehtonen, 2011. "Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 529-551, October.
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