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Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands


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  • M.-J. J. Mangen
  • A. M. Burrell
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    A sectoral market model and a stochastic epidemiological model were used to simulate the effects of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the Netherlands in 1997--1998. Compulsory EU control measures were implemented. Welfare changes of Dutch stakeholders, as well as government costs, were calculated. In a medium-sized epidemic without export restrictions, pig producers' surplus increased by Euro 502 million, but producers within quarantine areas lost. Consumer surplus fell by Euro 552 million. With a ban on live pig exports, pig producers collectively lost whereas consumers gained or experienced only a small loss. Government costs were lower when exports were banned, although net welfare losses were higher. Net welfare losses increased more than proportionately with epidemic size. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics in its journal European Review of Agricultural Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2 (June)
    Pages: 125-154

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:30:y:2003:i:2:p:125-154

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    Cited by:
    1. Wieck, Christine & Schlueter, Simon W. & Britz, Wolfgang, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," Discussion Papers 122022, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 11-05, INRA UMR SMART.
    4. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
    5. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lyytikainen, Tapani & Sahlstrom, Leena & Virtanen, Terhi & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2009. "Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49307, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Garrido, Alberto & Bielza, Maria, 2008. "Income Stabilisation in a Changing Agricultural World: Policy and Tools," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48108, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Rude, James & Meilke, Karl D., 2004. "Developing Policy Relevant Agrifood Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(02), August.
    8. Mangen, M. -J. J. & Burrell, A. M. & Mourits, M. C. M., 2004. "Epidemiological and economic modelling of classical swine fever: application to the 1997/1998 Dutch epidemic," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-54, July.
    9. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
    11. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2008. "Modelling The Dynamics Of Production Adjustment To Short-Term Market Shocks," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6401, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.


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