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Parameter Uncertainty in CGE Modeling of the Environmental Impacts of Economic Policies

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  • David Abler

    ()

  • Adrián Rodríguez
  • James Shortle

Abstract

This study explores the role of parameter uncertainty in CGE modeling of the environmental impacts of macroeconomic and sectoral policies, using Costa Rica as a case for study. A CGE model is constructed which includes eight environmental indicators covering deforestation, pesticides, overfishing, hazardous wastes, inorganic wastes, organic wastes, greenhouse gases, and air pollution. The parameters are treated as random variables drawn from prespecified distributions. Evaluation of each policy option consists of a Monte Carlo experiment. The impacts of the policy options on the environmental indicators are relatively robust to different parameter values, in spite of the wide range of parameter values employed. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists in its journal Environmental and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 75-94

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Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:14:y:1999:i:1:p:75-94

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100263

Related research

Keywords: CGE; Costa Rica; environmental indicators; Monte Carlo; parameter values; trade policy; uncertainty;

References

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  1. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
  2. Harrison, Glenn W. & Jones, Richard & Kimbell, Larry J. & Wigle, Randal, 1993. "How robust is applied general equilibrium analysis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 99-115, February.
  3. Allen C. Miller, III & Thomas R. Rice, 1983. "Discrete Approximations of Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 352-362, March.
  4. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1990. "Intertemporal general equilibrium modeling of U.S. environmental regulation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 715-744.
  5. Boyd Roy & Krutilla Kerry & Viscusi W. Kip, 1995. "Energy Taxation as a Policy Instrument to Reduce CO2 Emissions: A Net Benefit Analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-24, July.
  6. Harrison, Glenn W & Vinod, H D, 1992. "The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomized Factorial Sampling Designs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 357-62, May.
  7. Vennemo, Haakon, 1997. "A dynamic applied general equilibrium model with environmental feedbacks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 99-154, January.
  8. Jansen, Pieter S. M. Kop, 1994. "Analysis of multipliers in stochastic input-output models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-74, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Finnoff, David & Tschirhart, John, 2008. "Linking dynamic economic and ecological general equilibrium models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 91-114, May.
  2. Joshua Elliott & Meredith Franklin & Ian Foster & Todd Munson & Margaret Loudermilk, 2012. "Propagation of Data Error and Parametric Sensitivity in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(3), pages 219-241, March.
  3. Fousseini Traoré, 2012. "Do global cotton subsidies affect the Malian economy? New evidence from a multimarket-general equilibrium model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1640-1652.
  4. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
  5. Peter Berck & Sandra Hoffmann, 2002. "Assessing the Employment Impacts of Environmental and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 133-156, June.
  6. Abler, David G. & Shortle, James S. & Carmichael, Jeffrey J. & Horan, Richard D., 2001. "Climate Change, Agriculture, And Water Quality In The Chesapeake Bay Region," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20504, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Wieck, Christine & Schlueter, Simon W. & Britz, Wolfgang, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," Discussion Papers 122022, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  8. Jason J. Sharples & John C. V. Pezzey, 2005. "Expectations of linear functions with respect to truncazted multinormal distributions, with applications for uncertainty analysis in environmental modelling," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0503, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.

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