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Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions

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  • Jarkko K. Niemi
  • Heikki Lehtonen

Abstract

We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments. Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2010; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbq047
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics in its journal European Review of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 529-551

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Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:38:y:2011:i:4:p:529-551

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Cited by:
  1. Wieck, Christine & Schlueter, Simon W. & Britz, Wolfgang, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza Related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," Discussion Papers 122022, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
  2. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Liu, Xing & Pietola, Kyosti, 2011. "Price volatility and return on pig fattening under different price- quantity contract regimes," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114614, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. David A. Hennessy & Tong Wang, 2013. "Strategic Interactions Among Private and Public Efforts when Preventing and Stamping Out an Highly Infectious Animal Disease," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 13-wp541, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

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