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Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions

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  • Jarkko K. Niemi
  • Heikki Lehtonen

Abstract

We use a stochastic dynamic programming model to simulate the market implications of alternative foot and mouth disease scenarios in the Finnish pig sector. The model considers the dynamics of animal stock adjustment and price movements when the duration of export disruptions is unknown. Explicit treatment of these issues is crucial in the economic analysis of livestock epidemics, especially if there is a risk of a prolonged export ban. Results suggest that the risk of a prolonged ban increases disease losses considerably. It also increases economic benefits from production adjustments. Oxford University Press and Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics 2010; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarkko K. Niemi & Heikki Lehtonen, 2011. "Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(4), pages 529-551, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:38:y:2011:i:4:p:529-551
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jbq047
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    Cited by:

    1. Johnson, Kamina K. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Thompson, Jada M. & Kopral, Christine A., 2015. "Factors Influencing Export Value Recovery after Highly Pathogenic Poultry Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(A), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Christine Wieck & Simon W. Schlüter & Wolfgang Britz, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(8), pages 1037-1052, August.
    3. Maksym, Volodymyr & Chemerys, Vasyl & Dushka, Vitalii & Dadak, Oksana & Martyniuk, Uliana, 2022. "Modeling of economic efficiency of pig farming in agricultural enterprises," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 8(3), September.
    4. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Liu, Xing & Pietola, Kyosti, 2011. "Price volatility and return on pig fattening under different price- quantity contract regimes," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114614, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Tong Wang & David A. Hennessy, 2015. "Strategic Interactions Among Private and Public Efforts When Preventing and Stamping Out a Highly Infectious Animal Disease," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 435-451.
    6. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.

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