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Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

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  • Christine Wieck
  • Simon W. Schlüter
  • Wolfgang Britz

Abstract

We use two methodological approaches to analyze avian influenza related quarantine measures. First, a Heckman type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact and second, a spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of the importing country as well as parameter uncertainty of the calibrated coefficients by using a Monte Carlo approach. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalization is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented regulatory policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects according to the disease status of countries occur. The welfare results confirm that a trade ban is not the most appropriate measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2012.01461.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 (08)
Pages: 1037-1052

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:8:p:1037-1052

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  1. Anne-Célia Disdier & Stéphan Marette, 2010. "The Combination of Gravity and Welfare Approaches for Evaluating Nontariff Measures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 713-726.
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  4. Djunaidi, Harjanto & Djunaidi, Andrew C.M., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(02), August.
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