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Does weather matter? How rainfall shocks affect credit risk in agricultural micro-finance

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  • Pelka, Niels
  • Weber, Ron
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

Small-scale farmers in developing countries are undersupplied with capital. Although microfinance institutions have become well established in developing countries, they have not significantly ex-tended their services to farmers. It is generally believed that this is partly due to the riskiness of lending to farmers. This paper combines original data from a Madagascan microfinance institution with weather data to estimate the effect of rainfall on the repayment performance of loans granted to farmers. Results estimated by linear probability models and a sequential logit model show that excessive rain in the harvest period increases the credit risk of loans granted to farmers

Suggested Citation

  • Pelka, Niels & Weber, Ron & Musshoff, Oliver, 2015. "Does weather matter? How rainfall shocks affect credit risk in agricultural micro-finance," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212617, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212617
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212617
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulf Römer & Oliver Musshoff, 2017. "Can agricultural credit scoring for microfinance institutions be implemented and improved by weather data?," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 78(1), pages 83-97, December.
    2. Nicolás de Roux, 2021. "Exogenous shocks, credit reports and access to credit: Evidence from colombian coffee producers," Documentos CEDE 19769, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. Komarek, Adam M. & De Pinto, Alessandro & Smith, Vincent H., 2020. "A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Ölkers, Tim & Liu, Shuang & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2023. "A typology of Malian farmers and their credit repayment performance - An unsupervised machine learning approach," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334547, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    5. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Chabot, Miia, 2021. "Protecting franchise chains against weather risk: A design science approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 187-200.
    6. Rozzani, Nabilah & Mohamed, Intan Salwani & Syed Yusuf, Sharifah Norzehan, 2017. "Risk management process: Profiling of islamic microfinance providers," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 20-27.
    7. Nicolás de Roux, 2020. "Weather Variability, Credit Scores and Access to Credit: Evidence from Colombian Coffee Farmers," Documentos CEDE 17800, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Icíar García-Pérez & María Ángeles Fernández-Izquierdo & María Jesús Muñoz-Torres, 2020. "Microfinance Institutions Fostering Sustainable Development by Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, March.

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