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The Impact of Financial Crises on Trade Flows: A Developing Country Perspective

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  • Macias, Jose Brambila
  • Massa, Isabella
  • Salois, Matthew J.

Abstract

The global financial crisis has hit hard international trade that dropped below levels not seen since the Great Depression with disastrous consequences for the developing world. This paper estimates an extended gravity model of trade on a sample of 83 developing countries over the period 1990-2007 to shed light on how banking crises and global economic downturns affect bilateral exports flows from developing countries. In addition to traditional variables, we include a trade finance variable and foreign aid among the regressors. Differences between developing regions are taken into account. Our results show that (i) trade finance has a positive and significant impact on bilateral export flows in all developing regions except Latin America; (ii) foreign aid matters in all regions; (iii) global economic downturns exert a negative and significant impact on export flows in all developing countries, and especially in Latin American and Sub-Saharan African economies; (iv) banking crises appear to have no significant impact in most regions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland with number 91831.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc10:91831

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Keywords: Banking Crises; Developing Countries; Foreign Aid; Global Downturn; International Trade; Trade Finance; Mixed Effects Panel Data; Random Coefficients.; Agricultural and Food Policy; C23; F11; F12; F34; F35; G01.;

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  1. Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Gian & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Sharp reductions in current account deficits An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 897-908, May.
  2. Inmaculada Martínez Zarzoso & Felictas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Stephan Klasen & Mario Larch, 2008. "Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 170, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  5. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Raghuram Rajan & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/63, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Suwa Eisenmann, Akiko & Verdier, Thierry, 2007. "Aid and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 6465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Saborowski, Christian & Soylemezoglu, Ahmet I., 2010. "Trade finance in crisis : should developing countries establish export credit agencies ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5166, The World Bank.
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