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Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

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  • Aguiar, Mark
  • Broner, Fernando A.

Abstract

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of "effective" fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 53 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 699-724

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:53:y:2006:i:4:p:699-724

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  6. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Fernando Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio Schmuckler, 2006. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," 2006 Meeting Papers 841, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  13. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2005. "Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 439-452, August.
  16. Mark, Aguiar & Gopinath, Gita, 2005. "Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises," Scholarly Articles 3634155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Wilson, Berry & Saunders, Anthony & Caprio, Gerard, Jr, 2000. "Mexico's Financial Sector Crisis: Propagative Linkages to Devaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 292-308, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Gazi Mainul Hassan & Hisham M. Al refai, 2012. "Can macroeconomic factors explain equity returns in the long run? The case of Jordan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1029-1041, July.

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