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Bayes Estimates of Time to Organic Certification

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  • Hattam, Caroline
  • Holloway, Garth J.

Abstract

The adoption of organic production has increased dramatically over recent years, especially in less developed countries. However, little information is available about who adopts, the difficulties they face in converting and how these factors vary over time. Using small-scale avocado producers (<15ha) from Michoacán, Mexico as a case study, this paper explores the factors affecting the time-to-adoption of organic production and certification, drawing from five parametric descriptions of the data. These models are implemented using a Bayesian approach and advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The results indicate that additional sources of income, together with membership of producers’ associations, higher levels of education and experience of export markets, other than the US, have a positive effect on the adoption decision. Labour requirements and administrative capacity appear to be unimportant, while information sources and the frequency of contact with these sources have a varied, but largely negative effect on the probability of adoption. These findings raise a number of questions about the future of organic production in Mexico and the avocado zone, not least how to overcome credit and information constraints, but more importantly whether aiming for the organic market is a viable production strategy for small-scale producers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural Economics Society in its series 81st Annual Conference, April 2-4, 2007, Reading University with number 7979.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aes007:7979

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Keywords: Crop Production/Industries; Farm Management;

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  1. Lohr, Luanne & Salomonsson, Lennart, 1998. "Conversion Subsidies For Organic Production: Results From Sweden And Lessons For The United States," Faculty Series 16640, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  2. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
  3. John W. Cary & Roger L. Wilkinson, 1997. "Perceived Profitability And Farmers' Conservation Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1-3), pages 13-21.
  4. Michael Burton & Dan Rigby & Trevor Young, 1999. "Analysis of the Determinants of Adoption of Organic Horticultural Techniques in the UK," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 47-63.
  5. Rigby, Dan & Young, Trevor & Burton, Michael, 2001. "The development of and prospects for organic farming in the UK," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 599-613, December.
  6. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
  7. Carletto, Calogero & de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1999. "Sustainability in the Diffusion of Innovations: Smallholder Nontraditional Agro-Exports in Guatemala," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 345-69, January.
  8. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-98, January.
  9. Leggesse Dadi & Michael Burton & Adam Ozanne, 2004. "Duration Analysis of Technological Adoption in Ethiopian Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 613-631.
  10. Burton, Michael P. & Rigby, Dan & Young, Trevor, 2003. "Modelling the adoption of organic horticultural technology in the UK using Duration Analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(1), March.
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Cited by:
  1. Lapple, Doris & Donnellan, Trevor, 2009. "Adoption and Abandonment of Organic Farming: An Empirical Investigation of the Irish Drystock Sector," 83rd Annual Conference, March 30-April 1, 2009, Dublin, Ireland 51062, Agricultural Economics Society.
  2. Läpple, Doris & Rensburg, Tom Van, 2011. "Adoption of organic farming: Are there differences between early and late adoption?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1406-1414, May.

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