Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book chapter or follow this series

Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010

Contents:

Author Info

  • S. Borağan Aruoba
  • Francis X. Diebold
  • M. Ayhan Kose
  • Marco E. Terrones

Abstract

We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12198.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

as in new window

This chapter was published in:

  • Richard Clarida & Francesco Giavazzi, 2011. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clar10-1, octubre-d.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12198.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12198

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Other versions of this item:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
    2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 15-29.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2013. "Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-070, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen & Ivana Bátorová, 2013. "China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 59(2), pages 392-411, June.
    5. Alessandro Borin & Riccardo Cristadoro & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2012. "Forecasting world output: the rising importance of emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 853, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. David Matesanz Gomez & Guillermo J. Ortega & Benno Torgler, 2012. "Synchronization and Diversity in Business Cycles: A Network Approach Applied to the European Union," CREMA Working Paper Series 2012-01, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.