IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/jicepx/v09y2018i03ns1793993318500072.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Terms of Trade Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

    (World Trade Organization, Rue de Lausanne 154, CH-1211 Geneva 21, Switzerland)

Abstract

The world has experienced in recent years a rising anti-trade and anti-globalization sentiment, which would likely jeopardize recent efforts by the international trade community, in particular Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to promote multilateral trade liberalization (MTP). The current article investigates the impact of MTP on countries’ terms of trade volatility. Results based on a large panel dataset suggest that MTP exerts a significant reducing effect on countries’ terms of trade volatility. However, this impact appears to be dependent on countries’ development level. The take-home message is that greater cooperation on trade matters, including among WTO Members would help promote multilateral trade liberalization, which would surely contribute to reducing terms of trade volatility, for the benefits of all countries, in particular developing economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2018. "Multilateral Trade Liberalization and Terms of Trade Volatility," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:09:y:2018:i:03:n:s1793993318500072
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993318500072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S1793993318500072
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S1793993318500072?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    2. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    3. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2018. "Terms-of-trade cycles and external adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 103-122.
    4. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2004. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 321-340, July.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2006. "What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 63-86, May.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-1329, December.
    7. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    8. Manuel R. Agosin & Roberto Alvarez & Claudio Bravo‐Ortega, 2012. "Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962–2000," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315, March.
    9. Mona Haddad & Ben Shepherd, 2011. "Managing Openness : Trade and Outward-oriented Growth After the Crisis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2283, December.
    10. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    12. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    14. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    15. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2009. "Globalization and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 164-169, July.
    16. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    17. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    18. Chowdhury, Abdur, 2015. "Terms of trade shocks and private savings in the developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 1122-1134.
    19. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Pattillo, Catherine, 2004. "Terms of trade shocks in Africa: are they short-lived or long-lived?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 727-744, April.
    20. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    21. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2018. "Impact of multilateral trade liberalization and aid for trade for productive capacity building on export revenue instability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 141-152.
    22. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    23. Bevan, David & Collier, Paul & Gunning, Jan Willem, 1993. "Trade shocks in developing countries: Consequences and policy responses," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 557-565, April.
    24. Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "Terms-of-trade shocks and macroeconomic volatility in developing countries: panel smooth transition regression models," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 534-551, July.
    25. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
    26. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Nicolas E Magud, 2013. "Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms: Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall," IMF Working Papers 2013/103, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    28. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    29. Montalbano, Pierluigi, 2011. "Trade Openness and Developing Countries' Vulnerability: Concepts, Misconceptions, and Directions for Research," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1489-1502, September.
    30. Iscan, Talan B., 2000. "The terms of trade, productivity growth and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 587-611, June.
    31. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    32. Sergio L. Schmukler, 2004. "Financial globalization: gain and pain for developing countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 89(Q 2), pages 39-66.
    33. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    34. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
    35. Ratnaike, Yasanji C., 2012. "Is there an empirical link between trade liberalisation and export performance?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 375-378.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Harish Iyer, 2017. "Structural Economic Vulnerability, Trade Policy and FDI Inflows," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-35, February.
    2. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 448-467.
    3. Gnangnon Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Domestic Trade Policy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-14, September.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Structural economic vulnerability, openness and bilateral development aid flows," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-95.
    6. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," Working Papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    7. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2021. "Exchange rate pressure, fiscal redistribution and poverty in developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1173-1203, November.
    8. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    9. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Export diversification and financial openness," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 675-717, October.
    11. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Comparative Advantage Following (CAF) development strategy, Aid for Trade flows and structural change in production," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Internet, Participation in International Trade, and Tax Revenue Instability," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 267-315.
    13. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Effect of Aid for Trade Policy and Regulations on Tariff Policy Volatility: Does Institutional and Governance Quality Matter?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, January.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm & Iyer, Harish, 2021. "Effect of Aid for Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Utilization of Unilateral Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD countries," EconStor Preprints 238211, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2017. "Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 66-84, February.
    16. Jean-François Brun & Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Tax reform, public revenue and public revenue instability in developing countries: Does development aid matter?," CERDI Working papers halshs-02089734, HAL.
    17. Sena Kimm Gnangnon & Jean-François Brun, 2018. "Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Resource Revenue," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, November.
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2019. "Trade Policy Space and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," EconStor Preprints 196149, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of poverty on financial development: Does trade openness matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 97-112.
    20. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Fiscal Space for Trade: How Could the International Trade Community Help?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-42, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:09:y:2018:i:03:n:s1793993318500072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/jicep/jicep.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.