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Determinants of Export Diversificationaround the World: 1962 - 2000

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  • Manuel R. Agosin
  • Roberto Alvarez
  • Claudio Bravo-Ortega

Abstract

Using a large dataset of countries, covering the period 1962-2000, this paper analyzes the main determinants of export diversification (concentration). We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export concentration. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialization. In contrast, financial development does not seem to help countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, in some of our results we find a positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on concentration, but not significant effects of exchange rate overvaluation. We also find evidence that human capital accumulation contributes positively to diversify exports and that increasing remoteness tends to reduce export diversification. We also explore the role of terms-of-trade shocks. Most of our results suggest an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital: improvements in the terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 605.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:605

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  1. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?," Working Papers 182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Claudio Bravo Ortega & Álvaro García Marín, 2008. "Exploring the Relationship between R&D and Productivity: A Country-Level Study," Working Papers wp282, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  6. Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco, Martha Denisse Pierola, 2007. "Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins," IHEID Working Papers 20-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  8. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  9. Manuel Arellano, 2003. "Modelling Optimal Instrumental Variables For Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers wp2003_0310, CEMFI.
  10. Anne O. Krueger & Hal B. Lary & Terry Monson & Narongchai Akrasanee, 1980. "Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, 1: Individual Studies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue80-1, July.
  11. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002. "Economic Development as Self-Discovery," Working Paper Series rwp02-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  12. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  13. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Daniel Berrettoni, 2006. "Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Papers 065, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
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Cited by:
  1. Campbell, Douglas L., 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework," MPRA Paper 37091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Aleksandra Parteka & Massimo Tamberi, 2012. "Relative Product Diversification in the Course of Economic Development: Import-Export Analysis," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_056, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  4. Persson, Maria & Wilhelmsson, Fredrik, 2013. "EU Trade Preferences and Export Diversification," Working Paper Series 991, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  5. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2013. "Factors of trade in Europe," Working Papers 333, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).

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