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Determinants of exports diversifications around the world: 1962 - 2000

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  • Manuel Agosin
  • Roberto Álvarez
  • Claudio Bravo-Ortega
  • Esteban Puentes

Abstract

Using a large dataset of countries during the last forty years, this paper analyzes the main determinants of export diversification. We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export diversification. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialization and does not favor export diversification. In contrast, financial development helps countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, our results suggest a negative effect of real exchange rate overvaluation, but not significant effects of exchange rate volatility. We also find evidence that capital accumulation contributes positively to diversity exports and that increasing remoteness tend to reduce export diversification. We explore also the role of terms of trade shocks. Some of our results suggest that there is an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital. We find that improvements in terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number wp309.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp309

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Keywords: Export diversification; reforms; exchange rate;

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  1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Manuel Arellano, 2003. "Modelling Optimal Instrumental Variables For Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers wp2003_0310, CEMFI.
  4. Claudio Bravo Ortega & Álvaro García Marín, 2008. "Exploring the Relationship Between R&D and Productivity: A Country-Level Study," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 472, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  6. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
  7. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  9. Anne O. Krueger & Hal B. Lary & Terry Monson & Narongchai Akrasanee, 1980. "Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, 1: Individual Studies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue80-1, October.
  10. Alberto Amurgo-Pacheco, Martha Denisse Pierola, 2007. "Patterns of export diversification in developing countries: intensive and extensive margins," IHEID Working Papers 20-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  12. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Daniel Berrettoni, 2006. "Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Papers 065, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  13. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2013. "Factors of trade in Europe," Working Papers 333, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  2. Persson, Maria & Wilhelmsson, Fredrik, 2013. "EU Trade Preferences and Export Diversification," Working Paper Series 991, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  3. Parteka, Aleksandra & Tamberi, Massimo, 2013. "Product diversification, relative specialisation and economic development: Import–export analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 121-135.
  4. Douglas Campbell, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade Using a Dynamic Gravity Framework," Working Papers 121, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  5. Aleksandra PARTEKA & Massimo TAMBERI, 2012. "Relative product diversification in the course of economic development: import-export analysis," Departmental Working Papers 2012-23, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  6. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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