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Teacher Expectations Matter

Author

Listed:
  • Nicholas W. Papageorge

    (Johns Hopkins University, IZA, and NBER)

  • Seth Gershenson

    (American University and IZA)

  • Kyung Min Kang

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

We show that tenth-grade teacher expectations affect students' likelihood of college completion. Our approach leverages a unique feature of a nationally representative dataset: two teachers provided their educational expectations for each student. Identification exploits teacher disagreements about the same student, an idea we formalize using a measurement error model. We estimate an elasticity of college completion with respect to teachers' expectations of 0.12. On average, teachers are overly optimistic, though white teachers are less so with black students. More accurate beliefs are counterproductive if there are returns to optimism or sociodemographic gaps in optimism. We find evidence of both.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas W. Papageorge & Seth Gershenson & Kyung Min Kang, 2020. "Teacher Expectations Matter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 234-251, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:102:y:2020:i:2:p:234-251
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    Cited by:

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    3. Eren, Ozkan, 2023. "Potential in-group bias at work: Evidence from performance evaluations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 296-312.
    4. Borra, Cristina & Iacovou, Maria & Sevilla, Almudena, 2023. "Adolescent development and the math gender gap," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Thomas van Huizen & Madelon Jacobs & Matthijs Oosterveen, 2024. "Teacher bias or measurement error?," Papers 2401.04200, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    6. Pamela Giustinelli, 2022. "Expectations in Education: Framework, Elicitation, and Evidence," Working Papers 2022-026, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    7. Michela Carlana, 2019. "Implicit Stereotypes: Evidence from Teachers’ Gender Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1163-1224.
    8. Sarah Cattan & Kjell Salvanes & Emma Tominey, 2022. "First Generation Elite: The Role of School Networks," Working Papers 2022-028, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    9. Lekfuangfu, Warn N. & Odermatt, Reto, 2022. "All I have to do is dream? The role of aspirations in intergenerational mobility and well-being," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta & Burn, Hettie, 2023. "Teacher grade predictions for ethnic minority groups: evidence from England," ISER Working Paper Series 2023-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    11. Sansone, Dario, 2019. "LGBT students: New evidence on demographics and educational outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Maria Zumbuehl & Nihal Chehber & Rik Dillingh, 2022. "Can skill differences explain the gap in the track recommendation by socio-economic status?," CPB Discussion Paper 439, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Gershenson, Seth & Lindsay, Constance A. & Papageorge, Nicholas W. & Campbell, Romaine & Rendon, Jessica H., 2023. "Spillover Effects of Black Teachers on White Teachers' Racial Competency: Mixed Methods Evidence from North Carolina," IZA Discussion Papers 16258, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Thomas van Huizen, 2021. "Teacher bias or measurement error bias? Evidence from track recommendations," Working Papers 2113, Utrecht School of Economics.
    15. Michela Carlana & Eliana La Ferrara & Paolo Pinotti, 2022. "Goals and Gaps: Educational Careers of Immigrant Children," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 1-29, January.
    16. Delhommer, Scott, 2022. "High school role models and minority college achievement," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Shi, Ying & Zhu, Maria, 2023. "“Model minorities” in the classroom? Positive evaluation bias towards Asian students and its consequences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    18. Montgomery, Christopher Jamil de & Sievertsen, Hans Henrik, 2019. "The Socio-Economic Gradient in Children’s Test-Scores – A Comparison Between the U.S. and Denmark," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2019(1), pages 1-25.
    19. Bohdana Kurylo, 2021. "The Impact of Same-Race Teachers on Student Behavioral Outcomes," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp695, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    20. Hill, Andrew J. & Jones, Daniel B., 2018. "A teacher who knows me: The academic benefits of repeat student-teacher matches," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    21. Jason M. DeBacker & P. Wesley Routon, 2021. "A culture of despair? Inequality and expectations of educational success," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 573-588, July.
    22. Selina McCoy & Delma Byrne & Pat O Connor, 2020. "Gender Stereotyping in Parents' and Teachers' Perceptions of Boys' and Girls' Mathematics Performance in Ireland," Working Papers 202010, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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