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Sudden Stops, Time Inconsistency, and the Duration of Sovereign Debt

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  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Leonardo Martinez

Abstract

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances off increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and lowering duration to mitigate the debt dilution problem. We present two main results. First, when the government decides the debt duration on a sequential basis, sudden stop risk increases the average duration by 1 year. Second, we illustrate the time inconsistency problem in the choice of sovereign debt duration: governments would like to commit to a duration that is 1.7 years shorter than the one they choose when decisions are made sequentially.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10168737.2013.796112
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 217-228

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Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:27:y:2013:i:2:p:217-228

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  1. Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 17351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Niepelt, Dirk, 2008. "Debt Maturity without Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Levine's Working Paper Archive 114, David K. Levine.
  4. Ananth Ramanarayanan & Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, 01.
  6. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2011. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," IMF Working Papers 11/70, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
  8. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
  9. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
  10. Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2010. "Quantitative Properties of Sovereign Default Models," IMF Working Papers 10/100, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  12. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 11-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Quantitative properties of sovereign default models: solution methods matter," Working Paper 10-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  14. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  15. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2013. "International reserves and rollover risk," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 151, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  16. David Benjamin, 2008. "Recovery Before Redemption," 2008 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Cesar Sosa Padilla, 2013. "Voluntary Sovereign Debt Exchanges," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-13, McMaster University.

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