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Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhihua Ding

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Caicai Feng

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Zhenhua Liu

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Guangqiang Wang

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Lingyun He

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

  • Manzhi Liu

    (China University of Mining and Technology)

Abstract

We analyze and identify the factors that influence coal price fluctuations and construct a system dynamics model of these factors. The simulation results show that the trend in China’s future coal prices first declines and then rises, that the trends of coal supply and consumption in China are quite similar, both exhibiting a rising tendency, and that the gap between supply and demand is small and that the market is essentially in equilibrium. However, the increase in the coal industry profit margins also entails an increase in coal prices, and the magnitude of coal price increases also gradually grows. Greater adjustment coefficient factors lead to higher simulated coal price values, and the magnitude of increase also tends to rise. On the one hand, the greater the coal industry policy coefficient is, the closer the simulated coal price is to the value in the real scenario. On the other hand, the smaller the coal industry policy coefficient is, the greater the extent to which the coal price deviates from the real simulated value.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhihua Ding & Caicai Feng & Zhenhua Liu & Guangqiang Wang & Lingyun He & Manzhi Liu, 2017. "Coal price fluctuation mechanism in China based on system dynamics model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1151-1167, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2626-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2626-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yufeng CHEN & Shuo YANG, 2022. "How Does the Reform in Pricing Mechanism Affect the World’s Iron Ore Price: A Time-Varying Parameter SVAR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 83-103, April.
    3. Zhang, Yanfang & Nie, Rui & Shi, Xunpeng & Qian, Xiangyan & Wang, Ke, 2019. "Can energy-price regulations smooth price fluctuations? Evidence from China’s coal sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 125-135.
    4. Wang, Xiaofei & Liu, Chuangeng & Chen, Shaojie & Chen, Lei & Li, Ke & Liu, Na, 2020. "Impact of coal sector’s de-capacity policy on coal price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    5. Wei Wu & Boqiang Lin, 2020. "Reducing Overcapacity in China’s Coal Industry: A Real Option Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1073-1093, April.

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