IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/113209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship

Abstract

The study examines the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa for the period from 1970 to 2021. There is a problem of high oil prices and weak exchange rate of the South African Rand to the US Dollar. The study utilised annual time series data collected from the South African Reserve Bank. The study employed an ARDL model and performed Granger Causality test to analyse the relationships between the variables. The study found that there is a negative relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa. The study further revealed that there is a noncausality between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa. The study therefore recommends that policies that reduce oil prices must be implemented to safeguard the value of the South African Rand against the US Dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship, 2022. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates in South Africa," MPRA Paper 113209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113209/1/MPRA_paper_113209.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 714-733.
    3. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Risk dependence of CoVaR and structural change between oil prices and exchange rates: A time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 80-92.
    4. Chou, Kuo-Wei & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2016. "Oil prices, exchange rate, and the price asymmetry in the Taiwanese retail gasoline market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 733-741.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Sannur Aliyev & Javid Zeynalov, 2020. "The Effects of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 72-80.
    7. Jammazi, Rania & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "A wavelet-based nonlinear ARDL model for assessing the exchange rate pass-through to crude oil prices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 173-187.
    8. Salvatore Capasso & Oreste Napolitano & Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez, 2019. "The long-run interrelationship between exchange rate and interest rate: the case of Mexico," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(7), pages 1380-1397, November.
    9. Jungho Baek & Hong-Youl Kim, 2020. "On the relation between crude oil prices and exchange rates in sub-saharan African countries: A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 119-130, January.
    10. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Oct), pages 21-38.
    11. R. Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Risk and Macroeconomics of Exchange Rate," Working papers 262, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    12. Ibrahim Turhan & Erk Hacihasanoglu & Ugur Soytas, 2013. "Oil Prices and Emerging Market Exchange Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 21-36, January.
    13. Mutawakil M. Zankawah & Chris Stewart, 2020. "Measuring the volatility spill-over effects of crude oil prices on the exchange rate and stock market in Ghana," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 420-439, May.
    14. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Asaba, Nwin-Anefo Fru, 2015. "A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-89.
    16. Areli Bermudez Delgado, Nancy & Bermudez Delgado, Estefanía & Saucedo, Eduardo, 2018. "The relationship between oil prices, the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 266-275.
    17. Zainuddin Saenong & Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Wali Aya Rumbia & Heppi Millia & La Ode Saidi, 2020. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Effect of Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rate on Bond Yields in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 95-100.
    18. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    19. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    20. Hassan Anjum, 2019. "Estimating volatility transmission between oil prices and the US Dollar exchange rate under structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 750-763, October.
    21. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-51.
    22. Brahmasrene, Tantatape & Huang, Jui-Chi & Sissoko, Yaya, 2014. "Crude oil prices and exchange rates: Causality, variance decomposition and impulse response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 407-412.
    23. Jain, Anshul & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 88-93.
    24. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    25. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Bhattacharya, Mita, 2021. "Movements of oil prices and exchange rates in China and India: New evidence from wavelet-based, non-linear, autoregressive distributed lag estimations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 563(C).
    26. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    27. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 719-738.
    28. Wei Qiang & Aimei Lin & Chao Zhao & Zhenhua Liu & Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang, 2019. "The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 227-239, January.
    29. Xu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates: A non-linear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    30. Hassan Mohammadi & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, 2012. "Oil prices and exchange rates in oil-exporting countries: evidence from TAR and M-TAR models," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 766-779, July.
    31. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Risk and the Macroeconomics of Exchange Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 0493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    33. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 97-102.
    34. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    35. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    36. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Xiuyun, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of oil prices and exchange rates on China’s industrial prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jassim Aladwani, 2023. "Wavelet Coherence and Continuous Wavelet Transform - Implementation and Application to the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Oil Price for Importing and Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 531-541, July.
    2. Nyiko Worship Hlongwane & Olebogeng David Daw & Leeto Shogole & Selinah Ribese, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Oil Prices in South Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 315-322, May.
    3. Changyu Liu & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Saqib Farid & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Oil as Hedge, Safe-Haven, and Diversifier for Conventional Currencies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Zhu, Huiming & Li, Shuang & Huang, Zishan, 2023. "Frequency domain quantile dependence and connectedness between crude oil and exchange rates: Evidence from oil-importing and exporting countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-30.
    5. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Selected CEE Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    7. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    8. Alam, Md. Samsul & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ferrer, Román, 2019. "Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2023. "Cross-spectral coherence and co-movement between WTI oil price and exchange rate of Thai Baht," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Xu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Wan, Li & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Dynamic link between oil prices and exchange rates: A non-linear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Zhang, Xiang & Baek, Jungho, 2022. "The role of oil price shocks on exchange rates for the selected Asian countries: Asymmetric evidence from nonlinear ARDL and generalized IRFs approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    13. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    14. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "How do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co-move? From a time-varying perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Chowdhury, Kushal Banik & Garg, Bhavesh, 2022. "Has COVID-19 intensified the oil price–exchange rate nexus?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 280-298.
    16. Jiang, Yong & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Narayan, Seema & Ma, Chao-Qun & Yang, Xiao-Guang, 2022. "Heterogeneity dependence between oil prices and exchange rate: Evidence from a parametric test of Granger causality in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    19. Jiang, Jiaqi & Gu, Rongbao, 2016. "Asymmetrical long-run dependence between oil price and US dollar exchange rate—Based on structural oil shocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 75-89.
    20. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; exchange rate; ARDL; SARB; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:113209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.