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Escenarios para la transicion energetica a una economia carbono neutral en America Latina y el Caribe: algunos hechos estilizados

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Miguel Galindo

    (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)

  • Paulina Reyes

    (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)

  • Fernando Gonzalez

    (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)

Abstract

El principal objetivo del articulo es analizar algunos hechos estilizados de la trayectoria de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, provenientes del consumo de energia (CO2ee), y construir escenarios prospectivos para America Latina y el Caribe que permitan ilustrar la urgencia, magnitud, posibilidades y limitaciones del esfuerzo de mitigacion requerido para alcanzar la meta de una economia carbono neutral entre 2050-2070. La construccion de estos escenarios se basa en los modelos IPAT y STIRPAT, asi como en las estimaciones de las hipotesis de la EKC y de la convergencia de emisiones entre paises. Los principales resultados indican que las emisiones de CO2ee estan estrechamente asociadas a la evolucion del PIB, PIB per capita, poblacion y consumo de energia, y que el actual proceso de desacoplamiento en la trayectoria de las emisiones de CO2ee, provenientes de sus principales variables determinantes, es insuficiente para cumplir la meta de una economia carbono neutral a 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Miguel Galindo & Paulina Reyes & Fernando Gonzalez, 2022. "Escenarios para la transicion energetica a una economia carbono neutral en America Latina y el Caribe: algunos hechos estilizados," Sobre México. Revista de Economía, Sobre México. Temas en economía, vol. 3(6), pages 5-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:smx:journl:06:5:39
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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