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Carbon emissions and economic development: future trajectories based on historical experience

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Author Info
HEIL, MARK T.
SELDEN, THOMAS M.

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Abstract

This paper estimates the historic relationship between carbon emissions and GDP using data across countries and across time. We combine this relationship with plausible projections for GDP and population growth to construct a model that offers insights into the likely path of global emissions in the next century. In addition, we experiment with a method for incorporating oil prices into the model. Our analysis provides independent confirmation of the business-as-usual forecasts generated by the larger structural models.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Environment and Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2001)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 63-83
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Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:6:y:2001:i:01:p:63-83_00

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  1. Azomahou, Théophile & Laisney, François & Van, Phu Nguyen, 2005. "Economic Development and CO2 Emissions: A Nonparametric Panel Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-56, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Phu Nguyen Van, 2005. "Distribution Dynamics of CO2 Emissions," THEMA Working Papers 2005-10, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  3. Klaus Keller & Louise I. Miltich & Alexander Robinson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?," Working Papers FNU-124, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Frank Jotzo, 2006. "Quantifying uncertainties for emission targets," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0603, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ordás Criado, Carlos, 2007. "Temporal and spatial homogeneity in air pollutants panel EKC estimations: Two nonparametric tests applied to Spanish provinces," MPRA Paper 5043, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark Heil & Quentin Wodon, 2000. "Future Inequality in CO2 Emissions and the Impact of Abatement Proposals," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(2), pages 163-181, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Juan Antonio Duro Moreno & Emilio Padilla Rosa, 2006. "Análisis de los factores determinantes de las desigualdades internacionales en las emisiones de CO2 per cápita aplicando el enfoque distributivo: una metodología de descomposición por factores de ," Working Papers wpdea0602, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Paul Makdissi & Quentin Wodon, 2004. "Robust Comparisons of Natural Resources Depletion Indices," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 9(2), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
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  9. David I. Stern, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jie He & Paul MAKDISSI & Quentin WODON, 2007. "Corruption, Inequality, and Environmental Regulation," Cahiers de recherche 07-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jie He & Patrick Richard, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 09-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
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