Should transportation output be included as part of the coincident indicators system?
AbstractWith the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in determining the peaks and troughs of US economy. The index represents a service sector that plays a central role in facilitating economic activities between sectors and across regions, and can be useful in monitoring the current state of the economy. We evaluate the marginal contribution of the TSI in identifying cyclical turning points in the context of four currently used NBER indicators. The TSI is found to have advantages over the composite index of coincident indicators in identifying turning points, and has been of critical importance in recent recessions.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.
Volume (Year): 2012 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Other versions of this item:
- Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2011. "Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3477, CESifo Group Munich.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
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- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
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