IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/neo/journl/v8y2012i2p9-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Few Regressions Onbusiness Cycle Synchronization Between Thenew Member States And The Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • IVAN TODOROV
  • NIKOLAY PATONOV

    (SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD)

Abstract

This investigation uses panel data to measure the effects of financial integration, trade and specialization on business cycle convergence between the new member states outside the Europe area. Some of our empirical results agree with economic theory and some do not. We attempt to put an emphasis on the empirical results that are not in accordance with the theory predictions and find an appropriate explanation for them. Section 2 reviews literature and gives some recent data. Section 3 represents the data and methodology used and interprets the results. Section 4 draws conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Todorov & Nikolay Patonov, 2012. "A Few Regressions Onbusiness Cycle Synchronization Between Thenew Member States And The Euro Area," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 8(2), pages 9-22.
  • Handle: RePEc:neo:journl:v:8:y:2012:i:2:p:9-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://em.swu.bg/images/SpisanieIkonomikaupload/SpisanieIkonomika2012/A%20FEW%20REGRESSIONS%20ON%20BUSINESS%20CYCLE%20SYNCHRONIZATION%20BETWEEN%20THE.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    2. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    4. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    5. Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    6. Alessio Anzuini & Aviram Levy, 2004. "Financial structure and the transmission of monetary shocks: preliminary evidence for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 514, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Jorion, Philippe & Schwartz, Eduardo, 1986. "Integration vs. Segmentation in the Canadian Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 603-614, July.
    8. Chenery, Hollis & Taylor, Lance, 1968. "Development Patterns: Among Countries And Over Time," Center for International Affairs (CIA) Archive 294545, Harvard University, Center for International Affairs.
    9. repec:fth:eecero:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlations between the Euro Area, CEECs and SEECs – What Do We Know?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 76-94.
    11. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    14. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2001. "Financial Structure, Macroeconomic Stability and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
    16. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
    17. Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    18. Kocenda, Evzen, 2001. "Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-23, March.
    19. Jan Hanousek & Randall K. Filer, 2000. "The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 623-638, November.
    20. Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
    21. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    22. Babetskii, Ian & Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 212-229, June.
    23. De Santis, Roberto A. & Cappiello, Lorenzo & Baltzer, Markus & Manganelli, Simone, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU Member States," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    24. Angeloni, Ignazio & Flad, Michael & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of New Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    25. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    26. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Viktor M. Dinev, 2017. "Risks and benefits for new member states of the European Union in their entry in the Euro area in the context of the debt crisis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 112-130.
    2. Ivan Todorov & Aleksandar Aleksandrov & Kalina Durova, 2018. "Future Euro Area Membership Of Bulgaria In Terms Of The Business Cycle," Economic Archive, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 4 Year 20, pages 3-14.
    3. Kalina Durova, 2019. "Are the New Member States Ready to Join the Euro Area? A Business Cycle Perspective," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 72-95.
    4. Viktor Dinev, 2017. "“Macroeconomic Imbalances” Factor for the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 142-177.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ivan Todorov, 2013. "The Monetary Integration of the New Member States before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 11(4 (Winter), pages 375-390.
    2. Todorov Ivan Krumov, 2014. "Macroeconomic Trends in the New Member Countries of the European Union Before the Euro Area Debt Crisis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(2), pages 197-217, December.
    3. Ivan Todorov, 2016. "Currency Integration of the New EU Member Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-117.
    4. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
    5. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.
    6. Agnieszka Domańska & Dobrmił Serwa, 2014. "Synchronizacja cykli koniunkturalnych a podatność gospodarek krajów Europy na skutki kryzysu gospodarczego 2008-2009," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, June.
    8. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006. "Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    11. Jean-Marc Figuet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Convergence and shocks in the road to EU: Empirical investigations for Bulgaria and Romania," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp810, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "How synchronized are central and east European economies with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,20, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2009. "A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2009, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Antje Hildebrandt & Isabella Moder, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization between the Western Balkans and the European Union," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-25.
    15. Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Specialisation and Convergence in European Regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(2), pages 149-178, September.
    16. Sandra Eickmeier & Joerg Breitung, 2006. "Business cycle transmission from the euro area to CEECs," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 229, Society for Computational Economics.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2004. "A meta-analysis of business cycle correlation between the euro area and CEECs : What do we know - and who cares?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2007. "Monetary Integration of the New EU Member States: What Sets the Pace of Euro Adoption?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 367-409, June.
    19. Hoffmann, Peter & Kremer, Manfred & Zaharia, Sonia, 2020. "Financial integration in Europe through the lens of composite indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    20. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2004. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intra‐industry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(1), pages 1-12, January.
    21. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:neo:journl:v:8:y:2012:i:2:p:9-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vladislav Krastev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feswubg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.